We’ve got a “Sunday Night Football” matchup in Santa Clara that feels less like a primetime showcase and more like a MASH unit evaluation.
The 4-2 49ers are broken. Fred Warner is gone for the season. So is Nick Bosa. Brock Purdy is still sidelined. Ricky Pearsall is, too. That’s just a few of the many, many names.
The Niners’ defense is reeling, and the offense is sputtering.
Now, the 3-2 Atlanta Falcons—a team that’s won two straight—come to town with the NFL’s scrimmage yards leader in Bijan Robinson and a quarterback in Michael Penix who isn’t afraid to let it rip.
San Francisco gets George Kittle back, which is the only piece of good news they’ve had all week. But with Mac Jones running the offense and Tatum Bethune trying to fill the unfillable shoes of a Hall of Famer, this game isn’t about style. It’s about survival.
Here are the four things that will decide this game and my prediction:
The Obvious Move
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Deommodore Lenoir’s experiment at outside corner hasn’t worked out so far. “Uneventful” is being kind. “Regrettable” is far more accurate.
Now, with starting and upstart nickelback Upton Stout injured, the Niners are forced into a decision: Do they stick with the experiment and plug in the unproven Chase Lucas in the slot? Or do they finally move Lenoir back to the position where he was All-Pro caliber?
With Fred Warner done for the year, this shouldn’t even be a debate.
Lenoir is the alpha of this defense now. You need your best, most physical player closer to the action, not stranded on an island he’s proven he can’t defend. The smart play—the only play—is putting Darrell Luter on the outside and sliding Lenoir back inside. It’s the one move that might actually provide the spark this reeling defense so desperately needs.
The Streak Ends
The 49ers have set an NFL record, albeit a deeply embarrassing one — 13 consecutive games without a single interception.
I’ll bet the streak ends Sunday.
Here’s why: The Falcons’ offense, while talented, is predictable. They do a poor job of differentiating their run and pass looks. Combine that with a young, hyper-confident quarterback in Michael Penix who loves to test tight windows on first-read throws, and you have an offense that can be fooled.
This isn’t about the Niners’ pass rush suddenly finding its form. This is a schematic opportunity. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has a chance to sell out, create confusion, and bait a young QB who thinks he can make every throw. The Niners are desperate. They’re going for broke, and this week, they’ll finally get a pick.
This Isn’t Kittle’s Game
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Everyone sees that George Kittle is back and expects a fantasy football explosion.
Pump the brakes.
This Sunday isn’t about Kittle; it’s about Kyle Pitts. The reason is simple: Warner’s season-ending injury isn’t just a talking point; it’s a gaping wound in the middle of the 49ers’ defense.
Look at the tape from last week. Before Warner was carted off, the Buccaneers punted on three of their first four drives. After he left? Tampa averaged 7.2 yards per play and never punted again.
The middle of the field, once Warner’s no-fly zone, is now wide open. And that’s exactly where Pitts makes his living. He won’t be facing the best coverage linebacker in football. He’ll be facing Tatum Bethune, who was exposed in coverage the moment he stepped on the field in Florida.
Conversely, Kittle runs straight into an Atlanta defense that has been, statistically, the best in the NFL against tight ends, allowing a laughable 17 yards per game to the position. I think he’ll beat that number, but he won’t match Pitts’ output.
Kittle’s value on Sunday is as a blocker for a run game that’s stuck in the mud. His statistical ceiling is capped. Pitts’ ceiling, against this Warner-less defense, is limitless.
Mac Attack
The Falcons do the most.
No team in the NFL blitzes more. Atlanta brings extra rushers nearly 10 percent more often than any other team. Mug fronts, simulated pressures, and back-end rotation? Expect it on almost every single snap.
This is the entire game. And it’s a recipe for disaster for a 49ers team that has been anything but impeccable at the line of scrimmage this season.
The numbers don’t lie: Mac Jones completes only 55 percent of his throws against the blitz this season—ranking 26th in the league. He’s even worse in yards per attempt, at 5.1, which is bottom-of-the-barrel.
Yes, Kittle and Christian McCaffrey are the perfect answers for a hot read. But can this offense survive on a diet of quick dumps? Is that a nutritious offensive plan?
I’ll bet not. If the Niners can’t protect Jones— or if Jones can’t make Atlanta pay for their aggression, and there’s no sign he can — it’s going to be a long, long night.
My Game Prediction
The Niners coaches do enough to make this game interesting, but Atlanta will force more mistakes, and there’s little chance Robinson stays quiet. I’d expect this to look a lot like the Tampa Bay game. Give me the same score: 30-19