Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
The improbable became the impossible Saturday afternoon for Oregon State. A day later, the inevitable became reality as the Beavers fired coach Trent Bray following another ghastly loss in a gruesome season.
It’s not even the midpoint of October, yet the Beavers were mathematically eliminated from the postseason with a 39-14 loss to Wake Forest.
They are 0-7, have lost 13 of their past 14 and are deeply lacking in leadership, discipline and, worst of all, hope.
It was time — time to stop digging before the hole became too deep, and time to acknowledge that the status quo would have been more expensive than the disruption caused by a coaching change.
Not that the Beavers can afford either at this point. They reportedly owe Bray $3.6 million and will have to pay his staff to go away.
But the situation wasn’t getting better. That was clear Saturday when a sparse crowd watched Wake Forest, a mediocre team that flew across the country for a non-conference game, treat the Beavers like an FCS creampuff.
The defense — Bray’s area of expertise — has been a turnstile.
The offense has no discernible plan.
The special teams? A bleeping joke.
The easy move for Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes would have been to stick with Bray and hope the soft back half of the schedule produced a few victories.
Certainly, the Beavers should handle Lafayette next weekend. Sam Houston State is dreadful. Maybe they steal one of two from Washington State or pull a surprise at Tulsa.
But a handful of late-season wins over that lineup of opponents wouldn’t have solved the problems or provided a substantive launch point for next season.
And make no mistake: It’s all about next season, when Oregon State and Washington State return from the wilderness and the rebuilt Pac12 comes online.
At that point, the Beavers will be playing for a conference title and the berth in the College Football Playoff guaranteed to the highest-ranked team outside the Power Four leagues.
At that point, they will be measured against the teams they used to look down upon: the five newcomers from the Mountain West (Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State) and one arrival from the Sun Belt (Texas State)
At that point, Oregon State’s future will be defined for all to see.
Among the witnesses: Thousands of fans and donors who possess the dollars needed for success in the new era.
It is one thing for Reser Stadium to be half empty at kickoff and abandoned when time expires. It’s quite another for the stakeholders to give in and give up, to relinquish hope and close their checkbooks.
That was the risk associated with keeping Bray through the end of the regular season.
What good are two or three wins when everyone knows the competition is fourth-rate and the root problems have not been solved?
This season is finished. Every move the Beavers make must have a single purpose: to put the program in the best position for success next fall.
After all, Barnes has spoken repeatedly about the rebuilt Pac-12 being a power conference and a top-five league — a cut above the American and the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.
The damage caused by a football program at rock bottom cannot be measured by the price of the salvage operation alone.
With Bray’s dismissal, Oregon State can start to claw back its future from the abyss.
(All times Pacific)
1. Boise State (4-2)
Result: beat New Mexico 41-25
Next up: vs. UNLV (12:30 p.m. on FS1)
Comment: The Broncos have scored more than 40 points in each of their four wins and exactly seven points in each of their two losses. Next weekend, they face an undefeated opponent that just allowed lowly Air Force to gain 603 yards and score 48 points. (Previous: 2)
2. Washington State (3-3)
Result: lost at Mississippi 24-21
Next up: at Virginia (3:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: You’re damn right moral victories exist, especially for schools with Independent schedules, no conference, limited NIL funding and a first-year coach. (Previous: 3)
3. San Diego State (5-1)
Result: won at Nevada 44-10
Next up: idle
Comment: For all the focus on undefeated UNLV and Boise State, the Aztecs just might be the best team in the Mountain West. Certainly, they have one of the stoutest defenses in the conference. (Previous: 4)
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4. Fresno State (5-2)
Result: lost at Colorado State 49-21
Next up: idle
Comment: The Hotline long ago ceased being surprised by on-field results. But Fresno State’s loss in Fort Collins — and particularly the lopsided nature — was both downright stunning and easily explained at the same time. The Bulldogs were minus-4 in turnover margin. (Previous: 1)
5. Texas State (3-3)
Result: lost to Troy 48-41 (OT)
Next up: at Marshall (12:30 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: An 0-2 start to their final season in the Sun Belt was not on our bingo card for the Bobcats. And given the upcoming schedule, the situation could get worse before it gets better. (Previous: 5)
6. Colorado State (2-4)
Result: beat Fresno State 49-21
Next up: vs. Hawaii (4 p.m. on Spectrum Sports)
Comment: We considered elevating the Rams to the top half of the power rankings, but the magnitude of the win over Fresno State was offset by the slew of dreadful previous results. (Previous: 7)
7. Utah State (3-3)
Result: lost at Hawaii 44-26
Next up: vs. San Jose State (Friday at 6 p.m. on CBSSN)
Comment: The BMBM (Broncos Mendenhall bowl math) got exponentially more difficult with the loss in Honolulu. The Aggies probably need to sweep their next three (San Jose State, New Mexico and Nevada) to officially clear the threshold given the rugged finishing stretch (UNLV, Fresno State and Boise State). (Previous: 6)
8. Oregon State (0-7)
Result: lost to Wake Forest 39-14
Next up: vs. Lafayette (7 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: If you’re curious, Lafayette is an FCS team from the Patriot League that lost its only matchup thus far with an FBS opponent (Bowling Green) by 19 points. (Previous: 8)
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