Another week, another couple of injuries, and yet another win for the 49ers.
How long can these guys keep it up?
Another week, I suspect.
The Jags are a team that feels on the precipice of something big, particularly on offense, with head coach Liam Coen — one of the NFL’s best offensive coordinators — in charge.
But just because they’re on the verge doesn’t mean they’ll get over the hump.
And just because the Niners are banged up six ways to Sunday doesn’t mean they’re easy pickings.
Here are my predictions for Week 4:
1. The 49ers’ secondary looks wonky, and Jacksonville hits them for some big gains deep and over the middle
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» The communication from the 49ers’ secondary left a lot to be desired in the Niners’ Week 3 win against the Cardinals. But they were able to get away with a generally questionable execution of man-match coverage because Kyler Murray refused to throw the ball deep unless he absolutely had to (his deep ball looks like he’s tossing a grenade) and Cardinals receivers (namely Marvin Harrison Jr.) had some bad drops.
The drops might be there for the Jaguars, but Trevor Lawrence — a bizarro Kyler — will turn down the easy stuff to try to throw it into tight windows down the field.
I’m not sure how many of those tight windows he’ll see Sunday.
We know Lawrence will have time. For all the deserved plaudits the 49ers’ pass rush has earned so far this season, the Niners had 12 pressures — per NFL stats — against the Cardinals in Week 3. Roughly 40 percent of those pressures came on the first two defensive drives of the game, when Nick Bosa was on the field.
I seriously doubt Robert Beal will replace that.
Lawrence is going to have a great statistical game and the Niners’ defense’s early-season shine is going to fade, fast.
2. The Niners’ run game gets going
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» The Niners have one of the worst run games in the NFL so far this season, with Christian McCaffrey averaging 3.4 yards per carry alongside minimized assistance from either backup running back Brian Robinson or, frankly, any other skill-position player.
But it’s not as if McCaffrey has looked slow or tentative on his runs.
No, the way I see it, the Niners have simply faced three defensive fronts that were skilled and positioned perfectly to stop the 49ers’ foundational run plays — the kind that every team wants to run early in the season.
Add in poor blocking from tight ends on the more complicated runs, and you have a run game that feels like it’ll never break through.
But the Jaguars are a classic 4-3 defense with traditional alignments along the defensive line. The Jags have the lowest stacked-box (eight-plus men at or near the line of scrimmage) in the NFL this season by a wide margin, and have the third-worst run-stuff rate in the NFL this season.
This is the Niners’ best opportunity yet to establish a five-yards-per-carry ground game. I think they take it.
3. It comes down to trust
» I’m expecting this game to be a shootout, and even with his toe injury, I’ll trust Brock Purdy to make the big plays down the stretch over Trevor Lawrence every day of the week and twice on this Sunday.
It all comes down to anticipation.
Purdy plays with it because he has no other choice. He’ll throw to receivers that aren’t open yet because he knows they will come free. Sure, it can result in some head-scratching picks, but in the big moments of the game, such throws are necessary for all quarterbacks.
Lawrence, however, has no interest in that. His footwork is suspect, and he seems to always be a beat late when the picture isn’t crystal clear for him. On the road, close game? Even without Nick Bosa in his grill, that’s going to create some blurriness.
In a game that will have a 60-point total, Purdy will make the big plays when needed down the stretch, and Lawrence, simply, will not.
A lot of things go into winning and losing a football game, but that will be the main headline come Monday morning.
BONUS PREDICTION: Niners allow a kickoff return touchdown
» I might have been duped, folks. I was under the impression that the Niners’ increased attention to special teams might, you know, actually improve the Niners’ special teams.
That, folks, has not been the case, and nowhere do the Niners seem more susceptible than on kickoff coverage. For the last three weeks, opponents have just missed hitting San Francisco for a big one. I think that changes on Sunday.
GAME PREDICTION: The Niners run game comes alive, DeMarcus Robinson helps stabilize the pass game, and Purdy overcomes the Niners’ defensive miscues with a late go-ahead drive that Trevor Lawrence cannot match. Another week, another Niner win determined in the final minute.
49ers 33 – Jags 30