The second season of the new Big 12 begins in full force Thursday afternoon and ends … next week.
Not officially, of course. But in an admittedly narrow, undeniably relevant way, the Big 12’s narrative will be set by the close of business on Sept. 6, the second Saturday of the season.
That’s the date of the final head-to-head matchups against the SEC and Big Ten.
Through a random series of events — non-conference games are controlled by the schools and typically set years in advance — the Big 12 has just seven dates with the sport’s two behemoths.
All of them are scheduled for the first two weeks.
How the Big 12 performs will have a significant impact on its fate in the College Football Playoff selection process, especially with the at-large candidates that emerge three months from now.
Of the seven Big Ten or SEC opponents, only Oregon, which hosts Oklahoma State in Week 2, is ranked in the AP preseason poll.
Granted, the preseason poll is no guarantee of in-season success. Inevitably, there will be upside surprises. But the Big 12 would benefit greatly from at least one of the other six opponents (Iowa, Mississippi State, Missouri, Auburn, UCLA and Nebraska) leaping onto the national stage.
Because without a marquee non-conference victory — apologies to Oklahoma State, but we’re counting the trip to Eugene as a loss — the Big 12 will have trouble selling its at-large candidates within a selection environment seemingly stacked against the conference.
Or have you forgotten last year, when two-loss Brigham Young was ranked seven spots behind one-loss SMU despite a head-to-head win in Dallas?
The highly subjective CFP process isn’t merely set to favor the big brands in the Big Ten and the SEC. It works against the modest brands in the Big 12, offering zero benefit of the doubt and even less margin for error.
The absence of marquee programs oozing NFL Draft picks is both blessing and curse for the Big 12. It leads to more parity and unpredictability than the other leagues but means at-large contenders are more likely to have multiple losses and, therefore, an impossibly narrow path into the CFP.
“I don’t believe the Big 12’s fate will be sealed by those (early-season) matchups,” Fox analyst Joel Klatt told the Hotline. “Its fate will be sealed by its balance.
“The reason the Big 12 is likely to have one team in the CFP is the high likelihood that its No. 2 team will have three or more losses.”
And as we saw last season, the committee treats Big 12 teams with multiple losses differently than SEC and Big Ten teams with multiple losses.
Then again, some might argue that second-class status is justified because (wash, rinse, repeat) the Big 12 is devoid of big brands.
“It’s incredibly entertaining, a great league,” said Klatt, a former Colorado quarterback. “But it’s going to lose the narrative battle.”
Which brings us back to the opening weeks of the 2025 season and the need to win, to look good winning and to remind everyone about that winning long after the wins.
In addition to the seven dates with SEC and Big Ten opponents, the Big 12 has seven matchups with the ACC.
The details:
— SEC opponents: Auburn, Mississippi State and Missouri
— Big Ten opponents: Oregon, UCLA, Nebraska and Iowa
— ACC opponents: SMU (twice), North Carolina (twice), Georgia Tech, Stanford and Pittsburgh
— Big 12 home games: 8
— AP-ranked opponents: No. 7 Oregon and No. 16 SMU
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What’s the minimum level of success for the Big 12 to emerge from the first half of September with a strong resume and intact reputation?
If we assume the season plays out within a reasonable range of projections for the 14 opponents listed above, the to-do list starts with what the Big 12 cannot do.
Brigham Young cannot lose at home to Stanford; Arizona State cannot lose at Mississippi State; and TCU cannot lose at home to SMU.
Also, the conference needs at least one victory over the Big Ten, with Iowa State-Iowa and Utah-UCLA as more likely breakthroughs than Cincinnati over Nebraska and Oklahoma State over Oregon.
Another essential: A winning record against the SEC, which means Baylor must handle Auburn or Kansas must beat Missouri — or both, if ASU loses in Starkville.
If the results unfold in that manner, with a 2-1 record against the SEC, at least one victory over the Big Ten and a handful of wins over the ACC, the Big 12 will have given itself a chance to withstand the narrative headwinds bound to surface as CFP selection weekend approaches.
We should have clarity by the end of next week.
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