Californians were more optimistic about finances in July, only the second monthly improvement since Donald Trump won the presidency.
The Conference Board’s measurement of California’s consumer confidence rose 2% from June, according to my trusty spreadsheets’ review of this index derived from consumer polling. The index has dropped in seven of the nine months since October, just before Election Day.
The confidence yardstick is off 25% from October, when it was at a 14-month high. It’s also 8% below the index’s average dating to 2007.
The Golden State anxiety is not unexpected considering Trump’s “America First” thinking runs counter to California’s globally oriented economy. Heightened tension surrounding immigration enforcement and global trade frictions are no confidence boosters.
The overall confidence index rose in July because optimism for California’s future improved. One slice of the index – the “expectations” index – rose 9% in July.
But Californians are still worried about what’s next. This forward-looking index is down 32% from October and is 19% below average.
Meanwhile, California’s view of current conditions soured in July. The “present situation” slice of the confidence index was off 4% for the month and is down 16% from October.
However, after those drops, this yardstick of today’s economic psyche remains 5% above its 19-year average.
National worries
The Golden State isn’t alone. Consumers across the country have equally mixed feelings about their finances.
The national confidence index rose 2% for July. It’s off 11% from October but remains 6% above average.
The seven other states tracked by the Conference Board also had divided opinions on the economy.
Two state confidence indexes had gains from June:
Texas: Up 15% for July, rising 6% from October and 6% above average.
Michigan: Up 10% for July, rising 19% from October and 38% above average.
Four had dips in optimism:
Florida: Off 8% for July, down 11% from October but 6% above average.
Pennsylvania: Off 8% for July, down 9% from October but 6% above average.
Illinois: Off 6% for July, down 21% from October but 6% above average.
Ohio: Off 5% for July, down 7% from October and 10% above average.
And New York was flat for July. It’s off 13% from October but 17% above average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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