The Pac-12 dissolved in 2024, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are locked into the postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
The postseason floor is clear in Pullman. If Washington State loses more of the five remaining games than it wins, the Cougars will be home for the holidays — a disappointing conclusion to the first season of the Jimmy Rogers era and the final year of the Pac-12’s transition phase.
Our focus here is the ceiling. How high can the Cougars climb in the Pac-12 bowl pecking order?
After all, they mustered first-class efforts on their eastern double whammy, losing by three points at No. 8 Mississippi and by two points at No. 16 Virginia.
If they play as well as betting favorites as they did as massive underdogs, the Cougars (3-4) should have no trouble securing the three wins necessary for bowl eligibility.
Two of their final five are against Oregon State in home-and-home fashion. The Beavers just fired coach Trent Bray and are winless against FBS opponents.
The Cougars host Toledo, a mid-level Mid-American Conference team that’s winless on the road.
They also host Louisiana Tech, a Conference USA member which just lost to Kennesaw State by 28 points.
And they make a late-November trip to James Madison — the most difficult assignment, by far, on WSU’s schedule.
Based on the standard of play established at Mississippi and Virginia, particularly on defense, the Cougars should win three and could realistically win four. Five? That seems like a stretch but is worth addressing here.
Before we plunge into WSU’s postseason scenarios, three reminders:
1. The pecking order is determined by overall record, not conference record.
2. Bowl executives loathe repeat participants.
3. Bowls can pass over one team for another as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in record (the so-called one-win-down rule). If the Cougars are 7-5 and Colorado is 6-6, for example, the Sun Bowl could shun WSU in favor of Deion Sanders and Co.
With that, we see the following scenarios:
— WSU finishes 6-6
We suspect LA Bowl officials would be a tad wary of the Cougars, who participated in the event just three years ago (a blowout loss to Fresno State).
Also, San Diego State very well could be the Mountain West representative, and the Aztecs played WSU in September — that matchup would be a non-starter.
For those reasons, one of the bowls in ESPN’s pool (First Responders, Armed Forces and Gasparilla) is the likely landing spot.
— WSU finishes 7-5
Four wins in their final five games would infuse the Cougars with enough late-season momentum to energize fans and attract bowl officials desperate to sell tickets and hotel rooms.
The LA Bowl would become the floor, with a chance to jump into the Sun Bowl and face an ACC opponent. WSU last headed to El Paso in 2021 — not an ideal distance between visits but enough for both sides to feel content with the arrangement.
With a 7-5 record, the Cougars likely would be eligible to climb into the Holiday Bowl based on the one-win-down rule mentioned above. But given WSU’s participation in the Holiday last year, it’s not a viable option.
— WSU finishes 8-4
Five consecutive wins? It’s a long shot, especially with the trip to James Madison, but let’s suspend reality for a moment.
At 8-4, the Cougars would pose a dilemma for the Pac-12 and its bowl partners: Their win total would fall into the sweet spot for the Holiday, which won’t be interested.
Would the Las Vegas Bowl, which picks second in the lineup (ahead of the Holiday), grab the Cougars? Probably not. It would assuredly prefer Washington, Utah or Arizona State, assuming they have the requisite number of wins.
So WSU could end up sliding down to the Sun Bowl — a frustrating development for a team that would have rolled through November.
Anyhow, that’s how we see the Cougars’ options as they return from the eastern swing and prepare for the stretch run.
To the projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The Ducks (6-1) are in great shape. The Big Ten? Not so much. Everything points to three CFP bids for the top-heavy conference (Oregon, Ohio State and Indiana) with the SEC grabbing four and the ACC and Big 12 sharing three, plus one for Notre Dame and the 12th for the Group of Five representative.
Alamo Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: With his resourcefulness, leadership, mobility and cold-blooded approach to pressure situations, Sam Leavitt is the reincarnation of Jake Plummer. Those who witnessed Plummer’s magic will confirm.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Offered the chance Monday to declare his intention to remain with the Huskies (5-2) and not bolt for UCLA, Florida or anywhere else, Jedd Fisch passed. (“I’m not going to address any coaching changes or coaching rumors or anything to that effect,” he said.) Maybe he leaves, maybe he doesn’t. But clearly, Fisch and his agent want to drive up the price of a contract extension.
Holiday Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: We dropped the Trojans (5-2) from the Alamo Bowl due, in part, to the increased rigor of the remaining schedule. Their five opponents (Nebraska, Northwestern, Iowa, Oregon and UCLA) have a combined record of 14-6 in conference games. And Las Vegas won’t want them back for a second consecutive year.
Sun Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: A 10-win season remains very much in play for the Utes (5-2), who likely will be favored in every game the rest of the way. But head-to-head losses to Texas Tech and BYU could be deeply problematic in the Big 12 tiebreaker, assuming there’s as much mayhem as we expect.
LA Bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: The Hotline gave serious consideration to bumping the Wildcats (4-3) onto the tier of postseason non-qualifiers based on their inability to win close games and the likelihood of November bringing one tight finish after another. This is the Big 12, after all.
ESPN bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The Bears are 5-2 for the first time in coach Justin Wilcox’s nine seasons, but they aren’t exactly carving up second-rate opponents: Cal needed last-second defensive gems to beat Boston College (1-6) and North Carolina (2-4) in recent weeks and faces several daunting tests down the stretch.
Related Articles
Big Ten power rankings: Ohio State on top, Indiana No. 2 and Oregon 3rd
Big 12 power rankings: BYU on top, followed by Cincinnati, Arizona State
Pac-12 power rankings: Narrow CFP path for Boise State, others
College football: USC, Washington tumble on the road as ASU escapes again
Mailbag: Coaching candidates for Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford
ESPN bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: Has the Hotline pondered what might have been different for WSU if Zevi Eckhaus had been named the starter in training camp? Absolutely. And the contemplation always ends at the same place: WSU could have beaten North Texas. The 49-point loss was, after all, rooted in the three interceptions thrown by Jaxon Potter.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: We ran 10,000 simulations of CU’s upcoming schedule through the Hotline’s supercomputer to determine the likelihood of the Buffaloes (3-4) sneaking into the postseason. They failed to qualify 9,999 times. So, yes: We’re saying there’s a chance.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The makeup of the search committee is underwhelming, with only one member, former OSU coach Mike Riley, currently involved in college football. (Riley serves on the CFP selection committee.) From here, it looks like a group designed to give athletic director Scott Barnes cover, not real advice.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Two things, equally true: The Cardinal deserve credit for remaining engaged through a difficult season with an interim coach; their two ACC wins have come against Boston College and Florida State, which are 0-8 (combined) in conference play.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: For all the progress made under interim coach Tim Skipper, the Bruins (3-4) remain on the outside looking in. They must win three of five to become bowl-eligible with Indiana, Ohio State and USC on the road and Nebraska and Washington at home. But if nothing else, it’s now a topic worthy of discussion.
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