Welcome to a new feature on the Hotline — an assessment of the eight teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 as if they were competing in the conference this season. We’ll even recognize one lucky team as the regular-season champion. The power rankings will be published each Sunday throughout the regular season.
(Here are last week’s rankings.)
Nothing would add rocket fuel to the future Pac-12 like sending a team to this season’s playoff. But is there a realistic path for any of the eight teams set to compete in the conference next fall?
With seven weeks remaining, a plethora of scenarios could materialize.
None can be considered likely, or remotely close to likely.
In fact, the top teams in the rebuilt Pac-12 are poorly positioned relative to the best in the American Conference.
Before our deep dive, here are two reminders:
— Washington State and Oregon State are not eligible for the automatic bid to the College Football Playoff reserved for the highest-ranked team from outside the Power Four conferences. (Like Notre Dame, the Cougars and Beavers considered at-large candidates during the two-year transition phase.)
The CFP automatic bid must be filled by a representative from either the American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West or Sun Belt.
— No team with three losses, regardless of conference affiliation, has ever participated in the CFP — either during the four-team era or last season as a 12-team event.
Using those filters, only three members of the future Pac-12 have a chance: San Diego State (5-1), Boise State (5-2) and Fresno State (5-2).
Because they play each other, the losses will mount. But one of them must finish as a 12-1 or 11-2 champion of the Mountain West.
And even that accomplishment probably would not send them into the CFP due to the nature of their loss (or losses).
If you’ll recall, Boise State’s narrow defeat at Oregon early last year was viewed as a first-rate result that justified the Broncos’ eventual CFP berth as the 12-1 champion of the Mountain West.
The situation has flipped this season: All three teams have ghastly losses on their resumes — losses that will undoubtedly work against them in the selection process.
Boise State was beaten decisively at South Florida, Fresno State lost badly at Kansas and San Diego State was run off the field by Washington State.
The Broncos’ loss at South Florida, in particular, creates a major obstacle: The Bulls are 6-1 and also beat Florida. If they finish with the same number of losses as Boise State, the selection committee’s task is quick and clean. (South Florida probably would have the advantage over the Broncos as a three-loss American champion.)
Memphis (6-1) and Tulane (6-1) also have victories over power conference opponents — something Boise State and Fresno State lack. (San Diego State beat Cal.)
All of which leads to the following conclusion:
The future Pac-12 needs either Boise State, Fresno State or San Diego State to run the table, and it needs the top teams in the American to bloody each other to a degree that, in our view, is simply not realistic.
The framework was established in September, when the future Pac-12 schools struggled and the current American schools thrived.
To the power rankings …
1. Boise State (5-2)
Result: beat UNLV 56-31
Next up: at Nevada (Friday at 7 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: The game of the year in the Mountain West turned into a dud, thanks to UNLV’s hapless defense. Our eyes are now trained on Boise State’s mid-November trip to San Diego. (Previous: 1)
2. Washington State (3-4)
Result: lost at Virginia 22-20
Next up: vs. Toledo (12:30 p.m. on The CW)
Comment: It’s difficult to overstate how impressively the Cougars performed on their back-to-back eastern ventures against SEC and ACC opponents. The late-game meltdown in Charlottesville was unfortunate but hardly unexpected. If they play that well the rest of the way, a bowl berth awaits. (Previous: 2)
3. San Diego State (5-1)
Result: did not play
Next up: at Fresno State (Time TBD on FS1)
Comment: The Aztecs have allowed seven meaningful points in the fourth quarter all season — to Washington State in a result (the 36-13 loss) that makes less sense with each passing week. (Previous: 3)
Related Articles
Saturday Night Five: USC and Washington tumble, ASU survives and BYU wins the Holy War as Week 8 delivers the drama
Mailbag: Coaching candidates for Oregon State, UCLA and Stanford
Recruiting roundup: Holy War invite list and ASU’s guests from Texas
How the timing of the Pac-12’s poaching penalty lawsuit could impact the Mountain West
College football picks: Washington beats Michigan, USC covers at Notre Dame
4. Fresno State (5-2)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs. San Diego State (Time TBD on FS1)
Comment: We expect to hear Matt Entz’ name attached to coaching vacancies by early December, when the second-tier power conference schools start looking to replace the coaches who left for top-tier gigs. Of course, we also expect the Bulldogs to keep winning. If they stumble, well, never mind. (Previous: 4)
5. Texas State (3-4)
Result: lost at Marshall 40-37 (2OT)
Next up: idle
Comment: So maybe the Bobcats won’t be in position to immediately thrive in the new Pac-12, at least to the extent we expected. Two of their three losses in the Sun Belt have come to mid-level opponents. (Previous: 5)
6. Utah State (4-3)
Result: beat San Jose State 30-25
Next up: at New Mexico (12 p.m. on Mountain West Network)
Comment: The task is clear: Handle the Lobos and Nevada; get six wins secured; then let it rip against the stretch-run gauntlet. (Previous: 7)
7. Colorado State (2-5)
Result: lost to Hawaii 31-19
Next up: at Wyoming (4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Granted, Hawaii is one of the biggest surprises in the Mountain West. But so, too, is Colorado State — but not for the same reason. If the Rams lose this week, they might not win for many, many weeks. (Previous: 6)
8. Oregon State (1-7)
Result: beat Lafayette 45-13
Next up: idle
Comment: From the looks of it, changing quarterbacks generated as many benefits, if not more, than changing coaches. The Beavers have a real shot to finish with four wins, but we aren’t prepared to move them out of the cellar just yet. (Previous: 8)
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