Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published Thursdays throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last week, we were 6-4. Lines are courtesy of vegasinsider.com. Picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
If there was ever a week to ignore the Hotline’s picks, cast point spreads aside and simply enjoy the games, this is it.
Week 5 of the 2025 season is unlike any week of any season we can remember.
And yes, that includes rivalry weekends at the end of the season.
It’s fully loaded from start to finish, with ranked teams in perilous spots and epic, concurrent showdowns on NBC and ABC in the late afternoon broadcast window.
There are four matchups of ranked teams, and that list doesn’t include the nation’s No. 1 team venturing to a hostile environment to face an undefeated opponent. Nor does it include Notre Dame on the road in the SEC.
And let’s make no mistake: Week 5 is a testament to the expanded, engorged Big Ten and SEC and their lineups of marquee programs.
This is a week that justifies the massive dollars and awkward geography of realignment.
Here are the top matchups by broadcast window:
9 a.m.: No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (Fox) and No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (ABC)
12:30 p.m.: No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (CBS), No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Mississippi (ABC), Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (ESPN) and No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (Peacock)
4:30 p.m.: No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (NBC) and No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (ABC)
As you can see, the Big 12 is not involved. Its best game, TCU at Arizona State, is slotted for Friday evening, which is probably for the better — the matchup would get lost on Saturday. (However, the conference has an intriguing game in the #AfterDark window with BYU visiting Colorado at 7:15 p.m.)
Nor is the ACC involved. Its top-ranked team, No. 2 Miami, is idle, and No. 8 Florida State plays Friday.
No matter. This weekend marks the rare alignment of Big Ten and SEC schedules in which both conferences offered their TV partners showcase weekends.
To the picks …
Season record: 20-20-1
Five-star special: 2-2
All times Pacific
TCU (+3) at Arizona State (Friday)
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Horned Frogs have been the more impressive team thus far — quarterback Josh Hoover has next-level arm talent — but Friday road assignments in conference play are daunting. ASU lost a close game at Mississippi State and won a close game at Baylor, and we see a third last-possession-wins situation. Pick: TCU
Houston (-13.5) at Oregon State (Friday)
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: Another power conference opponent for the reeling Beavers, who are one of the few winless teams in the FBS and have allowed 86 points in the past two weeks. Houston isn’t as talented as Texas Tech or Oregon and will be boarding a flight for the first time this season. Feels like a few too many points. Pick: Oregon State
USC (-6.5) at Illinois
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The Trojans are playing their first 9 a.m. (body clock) game since joining the Big Ten. How will they handle the long flight and early start, especially after playing late last weekend? USC is more talented, and we can’t help but wonder about Illinois’ mental state after the 53-point loss at Indiana. Pick: USC
Cal (+6.5) at Boston College
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: How will the Bears respond to their epic fail last weekend at San Diego State? During the Justin Wilcox era, we have typically viewed them as a terrible road favorite and terrific road underdog — a program that can’t handle success and is far more comfortable without expectations. Pick: Cal
LSU (+1.5) at Mississippi
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The Hotline is on board the Lane Train, at least this week. Anyone want to join us? Pick: Mississippi
Ohio State (-8) at Washington
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Comment: When the line opened, the Buckeyes were 14-point favorites. Within 24 hours, it was down to 10 points. We doubt it will go much lower — but it should. Husky Stadium is a difficult environment for any opposing quarterback, much less one (Julian Sayin) making his first road start. We expect UW to keep it tight throughout and absolutely love the Under (52.5). Pick: Washington
Utah (-12.5) at West Virginia
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Comment: The Mountaineers are fresh off a lopsided loss at Kansas, which followed a victory over Pittsburgh, which followed a loss at Ohio — so yes, they are a tad erratic. The Utes are in recovery mode after the beatdown by Texas Tech and cannot afford another loss. They will find a way to win, but this is too many points for such a long trip. Pick: West Virginia
Arizona (+6.5) at Iowa State
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: A revealing game for the unbeaten Wildcats, who will be tested as they have not been tested this season. The Cyclones are tough, well-coached and superb under pressure. The key for Arizona? Running the ball consistently and successfully to control the clock and keep quarterback Noah Fifita out of obvious passing situations. Both teams had two weeks to prepare. Had the line been 7.5 points, we would have jumped on the Wildcats. Pick: Iowa State
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San Jose State (+2.5) at Stanford
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ACC Network
Comment: Revenge game for Stanford after the loss last year at SJSU. Both teams are coming off wobbly performances: The Spartans rallied to beat Idaho last week on a last-second field goal, while the Cardinal was overwhelmed at Virginia. Pick: Stanford
Washington State (+4.5) at Colorado State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Comment: This matchup of future Pac-12 peers is difficult to project but features one piece of connective tissue: Both teams have played Washington, and both were competitive with UW for three quarters — the Rams in the opener in Seattle, the Cougars last week in Pullman. Last mistake loses. Pick: Washington State
Oregon (+3.5) at Penn State
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on NBC
Comment: Each team has feasted on cupcakes to this point. We favor the Nittany Lions with defensive mastermind Jim Knowles, who faced Oregon twice last year while on Ohio State’s staff, having two weeks to prepare and a unit loaded with future NFL Draft picks. Oregon’s communication up front will be critical in the din of a White Out game. The Nittany Lions rushed for 297 yards on the Ducks in the Big Ten title game. Look for plenty of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Pick: Penn State
Alabama (+3) at Georgia
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: The “other” showdown on a loaded Saturday afternoon is a massive game for Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer, whose team lost decisively at Florida State in the opener (and was beaten badly at the line of scrimmage). Georgia looked the part of the SEC favorite two weeks ago with the come-from-behind victory at Tennessee. Pick: Georgia
BYU (-6.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 7:15 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: We aren’t sure what to make of the Cougars, who have won three games handily. But there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the Buffaloes are merely mediocre (i.e., losses to Houston and Georgia Tech). That said, the line is a bit large for our liking. Pick: Colorado
Straight-up winners: TCU, Houston, USC, Cal, Mississippi, Ohio State, Utah, Iowa State, Stanford, Washington State, Penn State, Georgia and BYU.
Five-star special: Washington. The Huskies have enough playmakers to puncture Ohio State’s stellar defense and stay within range of victory until the final whistle.
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