The Pac-12 dissolved 13 months ago, but one vestige of the former conference remains relevant to the college football season unfolding this fall: the bowl lineup. The legacy teams are tied to the same postseason arrangement that existed prior to collapse, albeit with one critical change. Instead of using conference record to establish the pecking order, overall record is the determinant.
Each week, the Hotline will project and assess the postseason status for all 12 teams. Last week’s projections can be found here.
The defining game of Oregon’s season will unfold before September closes. The Ducks venture to one of the most daunting environments in the sport Saturday evening when they face Penn State during a White Out game at Beaver Stadium.
It’s the third installment of a fascinating Week 5 triple-header for the Big Ten’s western arm, with USC visiting Illinois at 9 a.m. (Fox), followed by Washington hosting Ohio State at 12:30 p.m. (CBS) and the Ducks facing the Nittany Lions at 4:30 p.m. (NBC).
With a victory, sixth-ranked Oregon would become the co-favorite, at worst, for the Big Ten title and have cleared the most difficult hurdle on its schedule.
But the result carries next-level significance for another reason: the Big Ten tiebreaker.
The winner in Happy Valley will have a two-game lead over the loser. For Oregon, that component is particularly notable because of the upcoming schedule.
The Ducks don’t play No. 1 Ohio State, and they play both No. 11 Indiana and No. 21 USC at home.
Put another way: There are six Big Ten teams in this week’s AP Top 25, excluding the Ducks. They miss three of them (Illinois, Michigan and Ohio State); they host two more (USC and Indiana); and they would have a two-game lead over the other (Penn State).
Their path into the conference championship game would be wider than the Willamette.
But our interest in Oregon’s performance Saturday evening extends one level beyond any direct impact on the Big Ten race.
It’s reasonable to wonder how the defense will hold up and whether coordinator Tosh Lupoi has learned from his 2024 experiences.
The Ducks faced the elite of the elite in the Big Ten three times last season: the October victory over Ohio State; the Big Ten championship game win over Penn State; and the Rose Bowl collapse against the Buckeyes. In each, Lupoi’s unit was either partially or completely trampled.
The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions gained a total of 1,490 yards and scored on the vast majority of the meaningful possessions.
More telling: They averaged 7.5 yards per play.
Oregon won two of the three because the offense was sensational. And sure, that could be the case again this season. The retooled offensive line looks dominant; quarterback Dante Moore has first-rate arm talent; and the skill positions are fully stocked with playmakers.
But at the highest level, margins are thin. The Ducks cannot rely on a flawless offense to lead them in every marquee matchup through the Big Ten and the College Football Playoff.
To this point, the defense has been stout. But the Ducks have merely consumed appetizers. We have no idea how they will handle the main course.
The Nittany Lions rushed for 297 yards in the Big Ten title game and will undoubtedly test Oregon’s front seven early and often.
While the final score will help carve the Ducks’ path through the regular season — will it be treacherous or comfortable? — the defensive performance will illuminate their prospects in the postseason.
It’s only September, but December looms.
To the bowl projections …
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten at-large)
Comment: The Ducks (4-0) will return to the CFP as long as they finish with fewer than three losses. The exact win total (10, 11, 12, even 13) isn’t as important.
Alamo Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: The Trojans (4-0) have looked the part of a Big Ten contender thus far and face a difficult logistical assignment this week at Illinois. Hard to believe the Alamo would pass on the chance to grab them (if available), considering USC has never been to San Antonio for the holidays.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: Utah’s poor showing against Texas Tech suggests there are fewer obstacles preventing UW (3-0) from climbing into one of the top-tier games. The other participant in Las Vegas comes from the Big Ten, not the SEC, so we have no reason to ponder scenarios that could lead to UW playing Alabama.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: With a close loss and a narrow win thus far and a difficult schedule ahead, the Sun Devils (3-1) are one of the toughest teams to project. They could return to the CFP or fall to the LA Bowl. For the moment, we’re splitting the difference.
Sun Bowl
Team: Utah
Comment: Now we find out that quarterback Devon Dampier injured his ankle in the Wyoming game, and it impacted his performance against Texas Tech. But Dampier never appeared on the Big 12 injury report, according to the Utes (3-1), because his playing status was not in doubt. We have so many questions, but this seems most relevant: Did Dampier sustain the injury while trying to avoid colliding with a misplaced water cooler?
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: The schedule is so soft (no Miami, Florida State, Clemson or Georgia Tech) that a blowout loss to San Diego State doesn’t materially impact our view of Cal’s ceiling. That said, we will thoroughly reassess their trajectory if the Bears (3-1) lose this week at Boston College.
Related Articles
Big 12 power rankings: Texas Tech on top, then Iowa State and ASU
Big Ten power rankings: Showdown Saturday for, Oregon and UW
Pac-12 power rankings: Fresno State on top; SDSU rises after thumping Cal
College football: ASU escapes, Utah throttled while UW, Oregon win handily
Mailbag: UCLA’s bleak future in the Big Ten, 9 a.m. kickoffs, Pac-12 v MW
ESPN bowl
Team: Arizona
Comment: After hitting rock bottom last season, the Wildcats (3-0) would gladly accept an invitation anywhere. (The Desert Toyota Yuma Bowl? We’ll take it!) However, the pool of games likely available through ESPN features the Gasparilla, Armed Forces and First Responders Bowls.
Non-qualifier
Team: Colorado
Comment: The Buffaloes (2-2) appear to have resolved their quarterback issues (for now), but there are too many lingering questions and too many difficult games — BYU comes to town this weekend — for us to have any confidence that CU will win four more.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The path to a winless season for the Beavers (0-4) is considerably wider than the path into the postseason — they would need to win six of their last eight — and that perfectly summarizes the state of affairs in Corvallis.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: Best-case scenario for the Cardinal (1-3) at this point would be to spoil Cal’s bowl plans and then ruin Notre Dame’s CFP quest.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: For all the speculation over the identity of UCLA’s next coach, the Hotline has been pondering options for general manager. The Bruins (0-4) should seriously consider creating the role.
Non-qualifier
Team: Washington State
Comment: To be clear: We did not immediately dismiss WSU’s prospects for a bowl bid. But the combination of a difficult schedule and our lack of full faith in the coaching staff — it stems from the handling of the quarterback situation — led to the conclusion that the Cougars (2-2) will fall short of the six wins necessary.
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