As California voters prepare to cast their ballots in a high-profile November special election, the partisan redistricting measure at the center of it could drive a surge in voter turnout for otherwise low-profile local races and issues.
In the most consequential statewide special election since Republicans tried to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2021, voters this fall will decide whether to replace the current congressional district maps drawn by an independent redistricting commission with a gerrymandered plan that aims to flip up to five U.S. House seats from red to blue in next year’s midterms. The initiative, now known as Proposition 50, was triggered by an effort from Texas Republicans to increase the GOP’s slim majority in Congress in 2026.
But as Newsom and his allies plotted how to respond to the Lone Star State, two Bay Area counties had already planned to hold off-cycle elections in November.
In Santa Clara County, voters will elect a new county assessor, following Larry Stone’s retirement this summer, and also decide whether to approve a 0.625% general sales tax increase to offset some of the several billion dollars in lost federal revenues over the next few years. In Alameda County, voters living in the Washington Township Health Care District — an area comprising Fremont, Newark, Union City, Sunol and the southern part of Hayward — will vote on a parcel tax to fund emergency and trauma services at Washington Hospital.
Voter turnout for these types of special elections typically tends to be “abysmally low,” according to Eric McGhee, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California.
Santa Clara County Registrar of Voters Matt Moreles said in a statement that turnout has “not been as high as regularly scheduled general or primary elections, typically ranging between 20% to 35%.” In June, the special District 3 San Jose City Council race had an even lower voter turnout at 17.73%.
In Alameda County, Cynthia Cornejo, the deputy registrar of voters, said their “special election turnout varies between 25% and 30% depending on the issues and type of election.” Oakland’s April special election, which installed Barbara Lee as mayor, saw 37.90% of registered voters cast a ballot.
Voter turnout for presidential elections in Santa Clara and Alameda counties typically is in the 70% to 80% range, according to data from the California Secretary of State’s Office.
McGhee said that the biggest driver of turnout, though, is what is at the top of the ticket.
“You need to have some kind of larger issue that gets more media attention, and that’s when you’re going to get more flyers in people’s mailboxes,” he said.
California’s last statewide special election — an attempt at recalling Newsom in 2021 that created a media blitz with the likes of former President Barack Obama and then-President Joe Biden backing the governor — had a 58.45% voter turnout. In Santa Clara and Alameda counties, voter turnout was slightly higher at 63.04% and 60.75%, respectively.
The recall election had a higher statewide voter turnout than four of the six midterm elections since 2000, according to an analysis of state voter data.
Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College, told the Bay Area News Group that the people who typically turn out during special elections are habitual voters — those who vote in every election — and voters who resonate with what’s on the ballot.
Prop. 50, she said, is likely to motivate strong partisan voters on both sides of the aisle.
“They’re motivated to vote on [Prop. 50] and then they will suddenly also be asked to vote on these other measures,” Michelson said of the trickle-down effect. “I think we’re going to get a lot of people who, at the last minute, will be learning about these local ballot measures and are doing their research and figuring out how to vote on those without having been following those races as closely as they may have been following Prop. 50.”
In Santa Clara County, the addition of Prop. 50 on the November ballot already has invigorated Democrats who are also backing Measure A — the sales tax increase that is expected to largely be used to fund health care services that county officials say are at risk over recent cuts to Medicaid.
The local Democratic Party has endorsed the measure, and Chair Bill James anticipates “significantly more volunteers” will knock on doors and make phone calls because Prop. 50 is now on the ballot, as well.
“There’s a lot of energy and enthusiasm and desire to support Prop. 50, and that puts us in front of a group of activists who then we have the opportunity to also have support our efforts for Measure A,” James said.
John Whitehurst, a partner at BMWL Public Affairs who is working on the Yes on Measure A campaign, said in an interview that the biggest challenge was going to be awareness that there is an election in November. Prop. 50, however, “puts a bright light on this ballot.”
The political strategist said that the “ballot measures aren’t just policy proposals, they’re value statements.”
“Measure A is about protecting lives, Prop. 50 is about protecting democracy and Santa Clara County voters understand that these fights are connected,” Whitehurst said. “Prop. 50 and Measure A is our community’s ways of punching back.”
Some Democrats, however, oppose the measure, including former Saratoga Councilmember Rishi Kumar and former Assemblymember Kansen Chu. Both signed onto the official arguments against the ballot measure, which states that “the sales tax hits hardworking families the hardest, while giving politicians a blank check with no oversight or accountability.”
The county Republican Party, along with the Silicon Valley Taxpayers’ Association, is also opposing the measure.
Aside from the boost in voter turnout, 17 of the state’s 58 counties that are holding local special elections on Nov. 4 will benefit from Prop. 50 being on the ballot through reimbursements for election costs from the state.
When Stone, the longtime Santa Clara County assessor, announced in June that he’d be stepping down from his post before his term expired, county officials said they’d have to make adjustments to the budget to accommodate the hefty cost of a special election, which was estimated to be at least $13.1 million at the time.
But the county is expected to receive the full cost of holding the special election — $17.2 million — from the state, according to a Sept. 5 letter from the California Department of Finance to State Controller Malia Cohen. Alameda County is expected to receive $11.4 million.