The Big 12 power rankings are published weekly by the Hotline throughout the regular season. They are the result of a deep dive into the analytics, an assessment of subjective factors and, when necessary, flips of the coin. No conference has more parity. The parity leads to chaos, and the chaos creates an endlessly compelling product that is not always easy to unscramble.
The wildest, most unpredictable conference in the land just experienced a month’s worth of turbulence in a single Saturday.
And on balance, it was less than ideal for the Big 12.
The weekend started well, with Iowa State edging in-state rival Iowa on a late field goal, and continued 39 minutes later when Baylor rallied from 14 down in the fourth quarter to outlast SMU in double overtime.
Two games and two wins over Power Four opponents proved a little too good to be true.
The situation turned for the worse with the afternoon games.
Kansas lost the border war at Missouri. Oklahoma State was humiliated by Oregon. Kansas State blew a late lead against Army. West Virginia lost to Ohio.
And if all that didn’t provide enough anguish, Arizona State blew a late lead at Mississippi State, surrendering a 58-yard touchdown pass with 30 seconds left.
Yep, the reigning Big 12 champs lost to the reigning SEC doormat.
After the hot start, the conference ended the day 3-3 against Power Four foes, with two ugly losses (courtesy of Kansas State and West Virginia) and one unimaginable result (Oklahoma State).
Through two weeks, the Big 12 is 5-6 head-to-head against the SEC, Big Ten and ACC and has eight non-conference losses overall, three more than the Big Ten and five more than the SEC.
That matters deep within the algorithms that determine the strength-of-schedule metrics that inform the College Football Playoff selection committee that picks the at-large teams.
The better the Big 12 performs against the ACC, SEC and Big Ten — and every other league, for that matter — the wider the road for a second berth in the CFP.
The Week 3 schedule is light when it comes to Power Four matchups, with only West Virginia hosting Pittsburgh. Which means there is far more risk than reward.
The Big 12 cannot afford more bad losses as the close of non-conference play rapidly approaches.
To the power rankings …
(Last week’s edition can be found here.)
All times Pacific
1. Iowa State (3-0/1-0)
Result: beat Iowa 16-13
Next up: at Arkansas State (1 p.m. on ESPN2)
Comment: On the game-winning drive, the football gods tooketh (the uncalled pass interference by Iowa on receiver Brett Eskildsen) and the football gods gaveth back one play later (the deflected catch by tight end Gabe Burkle). The Cyclones took care of everything else. (Previous: 2)
2. Utah (2-0)
Result: beat Cal Poly 63-9
Next up: at Wyoming (5 p.m. on CBS Sports Network)
Comment: Hard to believe, but the wipeout of UCLA lost some of its luster when the Bruins face-planted Saturday evening at UNLV. (Previous: 1)
3. Texas Tech (2-0)
Result: beat Kent State 62-14
Next up: vs. Oregon State (12:30 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Given that Oregon State is much worse than expected, Texas Tech’s non-conference schedule stands as one of the softest in the Big 12. The season starts Sept. 20, with a trip to Salt Lake City. (Previous: 3)
4. Baylor (1-1)
Result: won at SMU 48-45 (2OT)
Next up: vs. Samford (9 a.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: Down 14 points with six minutes left, Bears quarterback Sawyer Robertson conjured his best impression of Josh Allen, except he did it 30 hours before the Bills’ incredible comeback. (Previous: 8)
5. TCU (1-0)
Result: did not play
Next up: vs Abilene Christian (5 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: Lingering doubts about North Carolina are the reason TCU isn’t slotted in the top four. We believe the Tar Heels are an ACC bottom-feeder. Until that forecast changes, or until the Horned Frogs register a quality victory, this placement seems appropriate. (Previous: 5)
6. Brigham Young (2-0)
Result: beat Stanford 27-3
Next up: idle
Comment: Technically, the Cougars lead the nation in scoring defense, having allowed three points in two games. Of course, we should point out that they have yet to face a major college opponent … Ba-da-BING! (Previous: 10)
7. Arizona State (1-1)
Result: lost at Mississippi State 24-20
Next up: vs. Texas State (7:30 p.m. on TNT)
Comment: Forget what happened last season. All we know about these Sun Devils is they have beaten an FCS opponent soundly and lost to a team projected to finish near the bottom of the SEC. Put another way: They are probably very good, but there’s no evidence. (Previous: 4)
8. Houston (2-0)
Result: won at Rice 35-9
Next up: vs. Colorado (Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Looking for this year’s version of Arizona State, Brigham Young or Colorado? The Cougars, who were an afterthought in most Big 12 preseason assessments, could very well fill that role. (Previous: 6)
9. Arizona (2-0)
Result: beat Weber State 48-3
Next up: vs. Kansas State (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: Obliterating bad teams (Hawaii and Weber State) doesn’t guarantee a good season, but struggling against bad teams typically suggests trouble awaits. The Wildcats have done plenty of the former and none of the latter, so yes, we’re saying there’s a chance. (Previous: 9)
10. Colorado (1-1)
Result: beat Delaware 31-7
Next up: at Houston (Friday at 4:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Not surprisingly, there is quarterback drama in Boulder. The twist: It doesn’t involve touted freshman Julian Lewis. Is third-stringer Ryan Staub the answer? (Previous: 11)
11. Kansas (2-1)
Result: lost at Missouri 42-31
Next up: idle
Comment: Tough loss in the return of the Border War. But we’d remind Jayhawks fans that things could be worse — just look 80 miles west. (Previous: 12)
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12. Cincinnati (1-1)
Result: beat Bowling Green 34-20
Next up: vs. Northwestern State (12:30 p.m. on ESPN+)
Comment: Our expectations for the Bearcats are low, but let’s give them credit for a close loss to Nebraska and for handling their business against an inferior opponent, which not everyone in this conference was able to accomplish. (Previous: 15)
13. UCF (2-0)
Result: beat North Carolina A&T 68-7
Next up: idle
Comment: Lopsided wins over FCS opponents are not typically cause for ascending the power rankings and certainly not by three spots. But somebody has to be 13th, and the Knights are the best option this week. (Previous: 16)
14. Kansas State (1-2/0-1)
Result: lost to Army 24-21
Next up: at Arizona (Friday at 6 p.m. on Fox)
Comment: The trip to Tucson does not count in the Big 12 standings but just might be the most important game of the season, because the situation appears to be teetering in Manhattan. (Previous: 7)
15. West Virginia (1-1)
Result: lost at Ohio 17-10
Next up: vs. Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. on ESPN)
Comment: Good reminder that Rich Rodriguez has a long climb ahead as he rebuilds the Mountaineers — a multi-year climb that will feature numerous setbacks and a few stunners, both good and bad. (Previous: 14)
16. Oklahoma State (1-1)
Result: lost at Oregon 69-3
Next up: idle
Comment: We aren’t making any predictions or assumptions. We’re just saying that in-season coaching changes usually come during the bye week. The Cowboys are off this week and again in early November. That’s it. That’s the comment. (Previous: 13)
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