Such an up-and-down season it has been for the San Francisco Giants that they have managed to play themselves out of playoff contention and right back in it in the blink of an eye.
That is, depending on how you view their current situation.
On Wall Street, traders have a term for a declining asset that shows a brief sign of life on its way to zero, often repurposed by sports writers to describe an athlete’s surprise success in the twilight of their career. As the Giants’ slim playoff odds tick back up, is it real, or merely a dead-cat bounce?
Entering Wednesday’s game in Colorado, Bob Melvin’s squad is suddenly the hottest team in the majors, posting a 9-1 record over its past 10 games that is better than any other team in the league. Their win Tuesday night — after Matt Chapman and Willy Adames were ejected for their role in a benches-clearing incident two batters into the game — gave the Giants a winning record for the first time since they were 59-58 on August 9.
No doubt, they continue to fight, so to speak, even after dropping 11 of 13 immediately preceding their current hot stretch. Rafael Devers, whose prolonged gaze at his first-inning moonshot irked Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, starting the fracas, told reporters, “We’re a very united team,” while Melvin took his side in the skirmish.
“It’s always been a team that’s been really tight, even during the tough times,” the manager said. “And that’s what gets you through the tough times. It shows you the fight when these guys are sticking up for their teammate, their new teammate.”
It resulted in one of their grittiest wins of the season, missing the entire left side of their infield, forcing Devers to play third base for the first time all season and an injured Casey Schmitt to take over at second (and hit a home run, no less). But for it to amount to anything more than a feel-good story amid a lost season, the Giants will have to keep it up — and get some help from the teams in front of them.
Here’s a look at the playoff picture with 23 games to play entering Wednesday:
Los Angeles Dodgers
Record: 78-60 (8½ games ahead)
Remaining opponents’ record: .475 (t-26th)
Playoff odds: 99.8%
The Giants, like the Dodgers, have one of the easiest remaining schedules. The rivals will square off seven more times before the season is over, starting next Friday, and those games represent the only ones San Francisco has left against opponents with winning records.
Technically, the division is still within reach. The regular season hasn’t quite gone as envisioned for the superpowered team down south, but they are healthier than they have been all year. Still, even the most improbable of seven-game sweeps wouldn’t be enough for the Giants to entirely close the gap.
Chicago Cubs
Record: 80-59 (10 games ahead)
Remaining opponents’ record: .475 (t-26th)
Playoff odds: 99.9%
The team the Giants just swept this past weekend owns a better record than the club they are ostensibly chasing for the division. So, anything is possible. But it’s probably safe to pencil the Cubbies into your playoff bracket.
That said, it’s still notable that the teams the Giants have been beating lately are no slouches. Before breaking out the brooms against the Cubs, they took two of three from the team ahead of them in the NL Central, the Brewers.
San Diego Padres
Record: 76-63 (6 games ahead)
Remaining opponents’ record: .433 (30th)
Playoff odds: 97.8%
As long as we’re thinking about the impact of head-to-head matchups, take a moment to consider the Giants’ record against the Padres, who they saw for the final time in the third week of August. San Diego swept that series and finished the season 10-3 against the Giants, San Francisco’s worst record against any team it faced more than once. The lopsided season series is arguably the difference between a three-team race in the NL West and the Giants’ current position.
New York Mets
Record: 75-65 (4½ games ahead)
Remaining opponents’ record: .515 (t-8th)
Playoff odds: 96.2%
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Here’s where the hope lays, with the one team challenging the Giants for the biggest second-half collapse. The Mets were 15 games above .500 and led the Phillies by a game and a half in the NL East after they beat the Giants on August 2. They’ve since gone 12-16 and trail the division by six games — but still cling to the final wild-card spot, largely thanks to the Giants, who have suffered three separate losing streaks of six-plus games since the All-Star break.
It all adds up to the slimmest of chances for the Giants. According to FanGraphs, they have a 3.3% chance to make up the ground and sneak into the postseason. For reference, that’s a smidge above the Cincinnati Reds, who entered Wednesday with the same record and a far tougher remaining schedule.
Just last Wednesday, FanGraphs pegged the Giants’ chances at 0.5%. That’s at least some bounce.