Miami toppled a longtime foil, secured a first-class win and did its conference a massive favor — all in 200 riveting minutes Sunday night.
But the implications of Hurricanes’ 27-24 victory over Notre Dame extend far beyond the ACC’s borders and the Week 1 ledger.
Miami did the Big 12 a solid, as well.
Although it’s mired in confounding, murky subjectivity, the College Football Playoff selection process is ultimately a numbers game.
There are seven at-large spots available, and the SEC and Big Ten are likely to gobble at least five, just as they did last year.
In theory, both the ACC and Big 12 would have reasonable access to the other two … if not for Notre Dame.
The Irish have their own pathway, courtesy of the CFP management committee that oversees the event’s format and selection policy: Finish in the top 12 of the final rankings, and they are in.
While there is no minimum victory total required for a top-12 placement, Notre Dame seemingly is a lock for the CFP with an 11-1 record.
At 10-2, the situation could get interesting.
At 9-3, the door is (likely) closed.
Miami’s victory leaves the Irish with little margin for error over their final 11 games.
Granted, their schedule is embarrassingly soft this year. The toughest road game is (take your pick) either a Week 5 trip to Arkansas or a Week 12 date at Pittsburgh.
The Irish play USC at home. They don’t face Clemson or Florida State as part of the ACC partnership. And they have a bye before Texas A&M visits South Bend in two weeks.
So, yes: 11-1 is entirely plausible. They might not lose again.
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Had the Irish beaten Miami, a playoff berth would have been vastly more likely than not, leaving the No. 2 teams in the ACC and Big 12 to compete for a single at-large bid.
(Unless the Big Ten and SEC both produce three at-large teams — a possibility that cannot be ignored given their growing hegemony over the sport.)
But Notre Dame’s weak schedule suggests a second loss would create a bubble scenario that dominates the media narrative in the weeks leading to selection day.
In the aftermath of the Miami loss, Notre Dame’s path has narrowed considerably. And the ACC and Big 12 are clear beneficiaries.
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