Welcome the Hotline’s weekly picks against the point spread, published each Thursday throughout the regular season with a focus on the top games nationally and the most intriguing matchups across the West. Last year, we were 70-55-2 against the spread (56 percent). The lines are taken from vegasinsider.com. The picks are for entertainment purposes only … unless they aren’t.
Week 1 is loaded with marquee matchups, but the drama tilts decidedly to the right — to the eastern half of the country and, in particular, the southeastern corner.
LSU-Clemson, Alabama-Florida State and Notre Dame-Miami are the biggest games of the holiday weekend, along with Texas-Ohio State, as the 2025 season begins in full force.
Meanwhile, the most intriguing game in the Mountain and Pacific time zones matches a team that finished 12th in the Big Ten last season against a team that finished 13th in the Big 12.
We aren’t complaining about Utah’s tangle with UCLA in the Rose Bowl. Matchups involving Pac-12 legacy teams are always worth watching, especially when the participants are desperate to change their trajectories. (To that end, Cal’s visit to Oregon State is worth monitoring, as well.)
Otherwise, the schedule is unlikely to resonate nationally.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, USC and Washington State all play FCS opponents.
Arizona and Washington host Mountain West foes.
Colorado has an ACC opponent, Georgia Tech, but kickoff is Friday.
The first full Saturday of the season is a decidedly Eastern Time Zone affair.
To the picks …
Games involving FCS teams not included
All times Pacific
Georgia Tech (-4.5) at Colorado
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN (Friday)
Comment: The line reflects lowered expectations for the Buffaloes without Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter. How will new quarterback Kaidon Salter, a transfer from Liberty, perform? It depends largely on an offensive line that has been second-rate for two seasons. That said, the spread looks a few points too large. Pick: Colorado
Texas (+3) at Ohio State
Kickoff: 9 a.m. on Fox
Comment: The super-mega showdown marking the start of the Arch Manning era in Austin could be a one-sided affair — and not in favor of the home team. We expect the Longhorns to be in mid-season form, or close to it, and control the game from start to finish. One storyline that hasn’t received enough attention: the impact of changes to Ohio State’s coaching staff. Pick: Texas
Alabama (-13.5) at Florida State
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: Two of the game’s highest-paid coaches, FSU’s Mike Norvell and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer, are under extreme pressure to produce this fall. The Crimson Tide is loaded along the lines of scrimmage and far better positioned than the Seminoles to contend for a College Football Playoff berth. But goodness, that’s a lot of points for a visiting team with a first-year starting quarterback (Ty Simpson). Pick: Florida State
LSU (+4) at Clemson
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC
Comment: A showdown of ranked teams and Heisman Trophy contenders with the quarterbacks, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier, currently carrying 9/1 odds. (Manning is the 7/1 favorite.) The difference? Clemson’s defensive line is absolutely stocked with future pros. The march to the national championship begins with a dominant showing by Dabo Swinney and Co. Pick: Clemson
Cal (+1.5) at Oregon State
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Comment: August isn’t typically a month for must-win games, but our back-of-the-envelope bowl math indicates the postseason calculation will turn tricky for the loser of this Pac-12 legacy duel. Expectations are high for the new quarterbacks, Cal freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele and Oregon State transfer (from Duke) Maalik Murphy. This should be in doubt with five minutes left. Pick: Oregon State
Hawaii (+17.5) at Arizona
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on TNT
Comment: We would expect Arizona to win handily if not for Hawaii’s competitive edge, courtesy of having played last week (a victory over Stanford). As a result, this could be a tad close for comfort for the Wildcats, at least through three quarters. They should pull away in the fourth, but that extra half-point makes us wary given the frequency of 17-point margins. Pick: Hawaii
Utah (-6) at UCLA
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Fox
Comment: We love West Coast primetime broadcasts on Fox’s over-the-air network — there are only one or two each season — and this edition has the makings of a taut, physical, old-school matchup. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava makes his anticipated debut for the Bruins after the much-scrutinized transfer from Tennessee, but could Devon Dampier, who joined the Utes from New Mexico last winter, be the star of the show? We like the Under (51.5) more than the point spread, to be honest. Pick: UCLA
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Colorado State (+21.5) at Washington
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on Big Ten Network
Comment: The Rams are quite capable of holding their own against power conference opponents, but we expect Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr., tailback Jonah Coleman and receiver Denzel Boston to show why they stand as one of the elite playmaking trios in the Big Ten this season. The concern with a spread over 21 points is always that dastardly back-door cover in the meaningless final minutes. Pick: Colorado State
Notre Dame (-2.5) at Miami
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ABC (Sunday)
Comment: The first meeting since 2017 doubles as a duel of preseason top-10 teams and the debut of quarterback Carson Beck for Miami. Playmakers are abundant, and both offensive lines are stout. Pardon us for wondering if Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal will find a way to lose. Pick: Notre Dame
TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on ESPN (Monday)
Comment: Bill Belichick’s debut in Chapel Hill comes against an opponent accustomed to Week 1 attention: Two years ago, TCU served as Deion Sanders’ foil in his first game with Colorado. The Horned Frogs have a first-rate quarterback in Josh Hoover and a veteran defense. Will Belichick wear a hoodie with the sleeves chopped off? How many times will ESPN’s cameras show his girlfriend, Jordon Hudson? Will she watch from a suite, or on the sideline with a headset? We’re kidding, of course. But seriously, will the Tar Heels look competent? Pick: TCU
Straight-up winners: Colorado, Texas, Alabama, Clemson, Oregon State, Arizona, Utah, Washington, Notre Dame and TCU
Five-star special: Texas. The showdown in the Horseshoe won’t be as lopsided as the Longhorns’ victory at Michigan early last season. But we don’t expect the game to be in doubt with five minutes remaining.
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