In the first half of 2008, as the global financial system was crashing, 169,946 homes were sold across California.
In 2025’s first six months, only 158,086 residences were bought — 7% below real estate’s ugliest era.
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This is a stark reminder, courtesy of my trusty spreadsheet, of the depths of the recent homebuying collapse. Using sales data from Attom it studied a broad swath of closed transactions, including houses and condos, both existing residences and newly constructed.
Consider how the pandemic era has altered homebuying by examining some simple math: ranking first-half sales since 2005.
California in 2024 had its lowest sales count to start any year. The second-slowest start was 2023. This year was the third-slowest, with 2020 at No. 4.
And bubble-bursting 2008? No. 5.
Let’s politely say the housing market is historically chilled.
The price is wrong
California house hunters remain hesitant because prices remain stubbornly high.
June’s $755,000 median selling price was an all-time high after gaining 6% in three turbulent years. That price gain is a decided cooling from the 39% jump between 2019 and 2022.
But it’s worth noting that prices slipped 26% in the three years before 2008’s debacle. Don’t overlook the role of those mid-crash discounts in spurring that era’s homebuying rebound.
Sales jumped 33% in the next 12 months, ending in June 2009.
Who can afford it?
What’s up with this slump? Well, it’s what’s down: The number of people who can pay up for a home.
The statewide affordability index from the California Association of Realtors tells us that only 15% of households can theoretically qualify to buy a single-family home.
That’s down from 16% three years ago, when mortgage rates were surging off their historic lows. Cheap money overheated real estate and the overall economy.
It’s also down from 23% at mid-year 2021 when home loans were still below 4% compared to 2025’s near 7% financing costs.
And the latest reading is also less than mid-year 2008, when 26% of Californians could theoretically purchase a home.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]