Californians’ anxiety about the new administration’s unorthodox policies has dipped, as one measure of optimism hits a six-month high.
My trusty spreadsheet peeked at the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index for August. This polling tracks shoppers’ psyche in eight states, including California, and the nation. The mood of shoppers is critical to the broad economy, as consumer spending is two-thirds of all business activity.
Statewide, confidence has risen 18% since April’s recent low when fears peaked as President Donald Trump unveiled an aggressive trade policy that unraveled years of international economic serenity. Some of the predicted fallout of higher tariffs, such as sharply rising prices of consumer goods, has yet to materialize.
Don’t forget that this is a state with a decidedly different global view than Trump’s. So, the summer uptick in California optimism does not signal full acceptance of the administration’s thinking.
Note that California confidence is still off 22% since October, just before Trump won his second term in the White House. California confidence is also 5% below the index’s average since its inception in 2007.
Look inside
A peek inside the index shows how the economic emotions are evolving.
Californians’ view of current conditions – the “present situation” index – is at a three-month high. It’s up 14% since April, yet it’s down 8% since pre-election October. Still, August’s reading was 15% above average.
It’s the future that is very cloudy.
California’s “expectations” index was off 3% in June but is 21% higher since April. However, the Golden State’s future view is 34% worse since October and is 21% below the 19-year average.
American difference
National optimism never got as dour as California under Trump, so its recent rebound is muted.
U.S. consumer confidence dipped 1% in August but is up 14% since April’s slump. It’s off 11% since October and is 6% above average.
Americans see their present situations 2% weaker for the month, flat since April, and off just 4% since October. It’s also 25% above average.
Expectations dipped 2% in August but remain 35% higher than in April. Still, the American view of the economic future is off 19% since October and 10% below average.
Stately split
The seven other states tracked by the Conference Board help show the divided opinions on the Trump economy.
Here they are, ranked by change since April’s lows …
Illinois: Up 22% since April after hitting a three-month high in August. Off 11% since October and 19% above average.
Texas: Up 20% since April after a 3% dip for August. Up 3% since October and 3% above average.
Florida: Up 18% since April after 1% gain in August. Off 4% since October but 13% above average.
New York: Up 14% since April despite an 11% drop in August. Off 18% since October but 10% above average.
Ohio: Up 5% since April after 3% dip in August. Off 7% since October but 10% above average.
Pennsylvania: Off 4% since April – after 7% drop in August. Off 14% since October and only 0.3% above average.
Michigan: Off 7% since April, following August’s 15% decline. Off 0.4% since October but 15% above average.
Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at [email protected]
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