The Hotline mailbag publishes weekly. Send questions to [email protected] and include ‘mailbag’ in the subject line. Or hit me on the social media platform X: @WilnerHotline
Some questions have been edited for clarity and brevity.
What are your current odds on the Mountain West’s survival? — Michael F
The likelihood of survival is less than 100 percent, for sure. But how much less?
First, let’s go back in time, to the Pac-12’s multi-year existential crisis, for important context on the Hotline’s approach to a topic as fraught as conference survival.
Soon after USC and UCLA announced their departures to the Big Ten on June 30, 2022, we published survival odds for the Pac-12 as an easy-to-digest means of helping fans better understand a complicated, highly fluid situation.
The odds ebbed and flowed for nine months as various dynamics unfolded and former commissioner George Kliavkoff pursued a media rights agreement. In the spring of 2023, we settled on survival as a 4-point favorite over extinction. That translated to an implied probability of approximately 60 percent — not much better than 50-50.
(The Hotline frequently has been accused on social media of reporting that the conference was a lock to survive. That’s patently false.)
Our skepticism was rooted in 1) the loss of the conference’s major football brand (USC) and media market (Los Angeles) driving down demand for inventory, 2) the ongoing risk that Washington and Oregon, the most valuable remaining football schools, would leave for the Big Ten and 3) Kliavkoff’s perplexing lack of urgency.
As we wrote in Jan. ’23:
“Slow-playing the process could prove advantageous, but is that the most likely outcome? Not from where we sit. The upside reward that could result from extending negotiations into the spring — and allowing marketplace dynamics to generate a few extra million dollars per year for each Pac-12 campus — is not worth the downside risk. Because the downside risk is extinction.”
That downside risk became reality six months later.
Fast forward two years, to the Mountain West’s fight for survival.
The circumstances are eerily similar in some regards: The conference has yet to secure a media rights agreement despite pursuing a deal for months; the top football brands have departed (for the rebuilt Pac-12); and its most valuable remaining schools, UNLV and Air Force, are flight risks.
If inclined, Air Force could seek refuge in the American and link up with Army and Navy, while UNLV could seek an agreement to join the new Pac-12.
And there’s an added complication: Lawsuits against the Mountain West, filed by the Pac-12 (over poaching penalties) and by three departing schools (over exit fees), with roughly $150 million at stake.
The situation is precarious, to say the least, and it will remain precarious until a media rights agreement is signed and sealed.
That said, the Hotline has set Mountain West survival as 7-point favorite over extinction, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 75 percent.
How should that be interpreted?
If you see a team favored by 4 points (Pac-12 survival), it suggests the game could go either way — that a victory by the underdog (extinction) is hardly an upset.
But if you see a team favored by 7 points, it indicates victory is likely but not guaranteed — that an extinction event would constitute an upset.
That’s how we view the Mountain West’s situation: Extinction would be a mild surprise.
Why are we more confident in the Mountain West than we were in the Pac-12?
Two reasons:
— Commissioner Gloria Nevarez.
Although caught by surprise in Sept. ’24 when Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State bolted for the Pac-12, Nevarez won’t take the same nonchalant approach to media rights negotiations that Kliavkoff possessed. With a long career in college sports, she’s well versed in the dynamics and unpredictability of realignment. (To that end, Nevarez has retained Endeavor, one of the best media consultants in the business.)
— UNLV already declined an offer from the Pac-12.
The Rebels have their sights set on an invitation from the Big 12 and appear to believe dominating the depleted Mountain West offers a wider path to their dream destination. We see that strategy as a massive miscalculation by the school’s administration, and it’s possible the Rebels will change their tactics. But for now, they seem content — as does Air Force, we should add.
To be clear, our Mountain West forecast comes with a significant caveat: If the legal dynamics turn against the conference in a decisive manner, the Hotline will reset the survival odds downward.
As with the Pac-12 in the 2022-23 window, the situation is fluid. Realignment is fluid. If the Mountain West gets whipped in court and suddenly cannot come close to meeting its financial promises to UNLV or Air Force, the odds will plunge to Pac-12 levels.
Why not just go to a 32-team College Football Playoff with no byes. Play four consecutive weekends, with a two-week break before the championship game. — Scott O
Funny you ask, because a 32-team field was one of several formats discussed privately by Power Four administrators in recent months.
It was extremely preliminary and didn’t enter the public sphere. Instead, the Big Ten’s 24- and 28-team proposals were leaked last weekend — presumably to create enough backlash to squash the idea before it gained traction.
In our view, the CFP should not expand beyond 16 teams. We would prefer it stand on 12, but 16 would be tolerable. Anything beyond 16 becomes so big as to threaten the competitive allure of the regular season.
After all, the regular season is college football’s backbone and, in that regard, differentiates the sport from the NFL, NBA, MLB and even college basketball.
Also, expansion beyond 16 teams would require a fifth round of play jammed into the first half of December, potentially leading to the elimination of conference championship games.
The Hotline could take or leave championship weekend. But under no circumstances should a decision on the postseason undermine the competitive brilliance of the regular season.
The CFP selection committee’s decision to use enhanced metrics to determine strength of schedule (SOS) is an improvement. However, many SEC sites and reporters see this as commissioner Greg Sankey and ESPN’s handiwork, expecting the committee to use ESPN’s updated FPI rankings. I trust you find this absurd. — Jon J
The updated Football Power Index published by ESPN this week favors the SEC to a degree that only makes sense when viewed from 30,000 feet. The company has a massive financial investment in the SEC and benefits greatly when the conference thrives.
It also has a massive financial investment in the playoff, as the sole rights-holder (with a sub-licensing agreement with Turner).
The potential for conflicts of interest to permeate ESPN’s coverage is so obvious — and visible on any given Saturday — that we won’t bother addressing it.
And yes, the SEC pushed for the changes to the selection committee’s strength-of-schedule metrics. Sankey and his campuses were concerned that shifting to a nine-game conference schedule, resulting in additional losses, would undermine the conference’s success within the highly-subjective selection process.
We have no reason to believe that ESPN’s FPI will play a significant role in determining the CFP field. The committee leans on data from SportSource Analytics and, unfortunately, goes to great lengths to shield the most relevant information from the public.
If that changes and the FPI takes centerstage in the process, there will be substantial backlash — with the Big Ten, which is aligned with Fox, not ESPN, likely leading the charge.
In a worst-case scenario, if the lawsuits against the Mountain West are still unresolved going into the 2026 season, could the conference claim the five schools are still bound by membership contracts and thus not legally part of the Pac-12 yet? — @CurtisBlack
First, let’s make sure our readers are familiar with the situation.
The Mountain West is the defendant in two cases:
— The poaching penalty lawsuit, filed by the Pac-12 over $55 million in penalties the Mountain West claimed it was owed following the announced departures of the five schools last fall.
— The exit fee lawsuit, filed by Colorado State, Utah State and Boise State over the fees owed to the Mountain West. With five schools leaving — San Diego State and Fresno State aren’t part of the lawsuit but would owe the exit fees — the total amount at stake is approximately $100 million.
Mediation (of both cases) failed to produce a resolution. The next step is a court hearing, scheduled for Sept. 9, on the Mountain West’s motion to dismiss the poaching penalty case. We expect the motion to be denied, which will increase the likelihood of a settlement. (University presidents are wary of trials.)
Now, let’s say the cases drag on until next summer. Yes, it’s unlikely. But the Hotline never balks at addressing unlikely outcomes — the process can be instructive for understanding more plausible scenarios.
We haven’t asked legal experts, so this is merely our hunch: A continued impasse would not prevent the five schools from switching conferences.
They have already completed the necessary paperwork to depart the Mountain West and join the Pac-12 on July 1, 2026.
And remember, the lawsuits are not about conference affiliation. They are, ultimately, about cash.
In this transfer portal age, why not impose a postseason ban and allow the players to immediately transfer? — Marty B
We assume you’re referring to the NCAA’s decision to slap Michigan with huge fines (roughly $30 million) in the sign-stealing scandal but not ban the Wolverines from the postseason.
Never forget: Everything the NCAA does in this era comes in response to a lawsuit or is designed to avoid a lawsuit.
In Michigan’s case, it was the latter.
The Committee on Infractions declined to impose a postseason ban on Tennessee two years ago after an investigation uncovered more than 200 infractions.
Had the COI tried to block the Wolverines from competing in the CFP or a bowl game, the school might have used established precedent as the basis for legal action.
It’s also a matter of basic fairness. Postseason bans punish the current players for past crimes committed (usually) by coaches who are no longer with the school.
Related Articles
The SEC goes to 9: Major implications for future CFP format, Big 12 teams
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Big Ten picks: Penn State, Ohio State, Oregon lead our 2025 forecast
Big Ten 2025 QB rankings: Illinois atop our list (yes, Illinois), followed by Ohio State, Penn State and Washington
College Football Playoff: The Big Ten’s latest proposal is a stunner, which might be the entire point
(That explains the additional suspension for current Michigan coach Sherrone Moore, who destroyed text messages that could have been used as evidence.)
The NCAA’s current view of postseason bans should have been adopted years ago. But as with so much else, it was too slow to move.
What are your thoughts on new Stanford athletic director, John Donahoe? — @EngelKRichard
Our gut reaction? Skepticism.
Donahoe is extremely accomplished, but he’s a college sports outsider exactly when industry knowledge is essential.
Also, he’s a 60-something retiree who made millions in the corporate world, including a stint as Nike’s CEO. Will Donahoe be willing to put in the work needed to fix all of Stanford’s problems and position the Cardinal for success in the next era of college football and basketball?
We will reserve judgment for a year or two, which is only fair when it comes to athletic directors.
But this hardly seems like a can’t-miss hire.
How many games does Cal have to win for Justin Wilcox to survive? — @a_enchilad_a
Cal general manager Ron Rivera has a direct line to chancellor Rich Lyons and will effectively make the call on Wilcox’s future employment. Fortunately, he addressed that very issue earlier this week when speaking with reporters.
What does success look like?
“Anything that puts us in a solid bowl game, eight, nine wins,” Rivera said. “I think that’s what you’re looking for. That shows growth from last year. Last year, we didn’t win the close games. We’ve got to win the close games.”
Those things are intertwined, of course. The Bears won’t finish 8-4 or 9-3 if they lose a slew of close games.
“We all know the clock’s ticking,” Rivera added. “There’s pressure to be successful, especially in today’s climate.”
Put another way: Another mediocre season probably won’t be enough for Wilcox.
Why are you over the hill? — @uapseattle
Shocking that this comment appeared on my X feed after the publication of an article that examined the hard road ahead for Washington (and UCLA and USC) in the Big Ten.
As always, we urge fans to read the content before jumping to conclusions based on the headline or the brief description on X.
In this case, the reference to “recent history” wasn’t about Washington specifically but, rather, the history of Big Ten expansion teams.
Give the article a try. Upon reading, you might feel differently — unless, of course, rage at the Hotline is the goal.
And that’s fine, too.
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