Anyone who has gone through a construction project knows the perils of project creep and cost overruns. For Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the experience might lead to a more difficult end to his tenure as Fed Chair or potentially lead to his removal.
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For months, President Donald Trump has been threatening to fire Powell, primarily because the president thinks that short term interest rates, which currently stand at 4.25 to 4.50 percent, are too high.
Every time the president flirts with unseating Powell, he has pulled back, but could he actually do it?
The bar is high to fire Fed Chairs: a 1935 Supreme Court ruling found that Fed officials can only be forced out or fired “for cause,” which most have interpreted as some sort of crime, like embezzlement or fraud.
This spring, the Supreme Court seemed to carve out special privilege to the Fed, even as it granted permission for the administration to fire other agency heads, noting that “the Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity.”
Enter the $2.5 billion, over-budget construction project at the Fed, which began in 2021. Trump officials and supporters have called it a “palace,” but the tax code provides the Fed with a lot of latitude when it comes to funding projects. Even if Trump chooses not to fire Powell, he could use the renovation project to goad him into leaving or set him up as the fall guy for anything bad that happens in the economy.
Why should you care about all of this finger-pointing?
For nearly 100 years, politicians have attempted to influence the Fed to lower interest rates, which can boost economic growth and lead to job creation. The problem is that low short-term interest rates can also foster inflation, and if that were to occur, investors would demand higher rates to compensate them for the extra inflation risk.
For the U.S. economy to function efficiently, the Fed needs the freedom to raise interest rates to combat inflation, regardless of the fact that it might slow down the economy and disappoint consumers and politicians.
Does the president have a point – should the Fed lower rates?
While incomes have risen over the past five years and the stock market has boomed, many Americans have a legitimate gripe about the rising cost of living in this country.
Although the inflation rate (CPI) has come down substantially, we are still living with the cumulative effect that inflation has inflicted on the economy in the form of higher prices. Big line items like healthcare, housing and automobiles are all a lot more expensive today than they were prior to COVID, which creates a strain on household budgets.
While there is a case for lowering interest rates, Powell said in June that officials can “make smarter and better decisions” if they wait to see how tariffs impact the inflation rate. Powell reiterated that the current level of interest rates has not substantially slowed down the economy or negatively impacted the labor market. The president thinks that the Fed should cut short term interest rates by about 3 percentage points.
How are consumers reacting to still-high prices and interest rates?
American consumers are doing what they always do — they’re adapting and being strategic. June retail sales were ahead of exceeded expectations, as people opened their wallets across many categories, spending when they saw value, but being more selective about where those dollars go.
Whether or not they can keep up the pace depends on the overall economy and the labor market. If we see either start to deteriorate, then consumers are going to retreat.
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Jill Schlesinger, CFP, is a CBS News business analyst. A former options trader and CIO of an investment advisory firm, she welcomes comments and questions at [email protected]. Check her website at www.jillonmoney.com.