By Craig Trudell, Bloomberg
President Donald Trump’s efforts to unravel policies supporting electric vehicles threatens to turn the US into a laggard for years to come, according to a new report.
BloombergNEF reduced both its near- and long-term EV outlook for the first time, cutting 14 million battery-powered cars from its sales projections through 2030 due to the US rollback. The researcher now sees the country trailing not only China and Europe, but also the global average adoption rate until 2040.
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“Global EV sales are growing, but the national picture is more varied than ever,” BNEF analysts write in the report released Wednesday. Whereas China is expected to account for nearly two-thirds of the almost 22 million plug-in vehicles sold globally this year, in part thanks to government incentives, “all major EV policies in the US are under fire.”
Trump ordered the elimination of subsidies and other measures boosting electric vehicles during his first day back in the White House in January. His administration and the Republican-controlled Congress are heeding his directive by moving to ease national fuel-economy standards, phase out EV tax credits and strip California’s ability to set its own emissions limits.
BNEF’s outlook assumes national gas-mileage and tailpipe regulations will revert back to where they were during Trump’s first term, and that the up-to-$7,500 consumer tax credit will end for most EVs after this year. There’s potential for further downside to the researcher’s outlook for EV sales in the US, depending on the ultimate fate of waivers allowing states to impose more stringent clean-air rules. A coalition of states led by California Attorney General Rob Bonta sued last week to challenge the administration’s move to scrap state-level policies.
“If this attempt at revoking the waiver is successful, it would have dire consequences for EV sales in California, and because of the state’s oversized influence on the EV market in the country, in whole of the US,” BNEF says. “Removing all of the supply-side mandates in the country, at the same time as demand incentives, would push down EV sales in the US sharply.”
China, by contrast, is expected to keep up its momentum in transitioning to plug-in vehicles, largely due to simple economics: It’s the only large market where EVs are cheaper, on average, than comparable combustion cars. Demand also is getting a boost from the government extending subsidies that encourage consumers to trade in older cars for new EVs and hybrids.
BNEF predicts the country’s electric vehicle market will be larger than the total US car market within the next year.
“China is emerging as a major electric vehicle manufacturing powerhouse,” BNEF says in its report, estimating that the country accounted for just shy of 70% of worldwide EV production last year.
China’s dominance of EV manufacturing and the battery supply chain contributed to rising trade tensions and increased tariffs since BNEF last published its annual outlook. The European Union imposed duties on imports of battery-electric vehicles from China for five years starting in October, with added tariffs ranging from 35% for MG maker SAIC Motor Corp. to 7.8% for Tesla Inc.
“Policymakers face growing tension between environmental targets and other competing policy priorities, and as a result many automakers have reduced previously announced EV goals or quietly shelved them,” BNEF says in its report, citing walk-backs by manufacturers including Toyota, Ford, Mercedes-Benz and Volvo.
In addition to taking measures to protect domestic manufacturers from cheaper EVs imported from China, the EU relaxed its CO2 emissions standards by sparing manufacturers from likely fines this year and allowing companies to meet tougher targets more gradually. As a result of the change, BNEF cut its forecast for electric vehicle sales in affected markets from this year through 2027 by about 19%, or roughly 2.6 million cars.
The UK — which left the EU in 2020 and has maintained relative openness to Chinese imports — has emerged as the leading major market for electric vehicles after China. BNEF expects plug-in cars to reach 40% share of the UK market by next year.
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