The Big 12 performed well last season from start to finish, with five teams in the top 10 of the AP preseason poll and one team, Houston, in the NCAA championship game.
Is it reasonable to expect similar success in 2025-26?
Based on the post-spring rosters, with clarity on NBA Draft and transfer portal decisions, the Big 12 has at least three teams with the personnel needed for deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.
Beyond Houston, Texas Tech and Brigham Young, the pecking order is a tad murky.
That won’t stop the Hotline from attempting to add order to clutter, however.
Our early-April power rankings can be found here.
1. Houston
The Cougars solidified their hold on the top spot when Milos Uzan withdrew from the draft to give coach Kelvin Sampson the best point guard and the best defensive player (Joseph Tugler) in the Big 12, along with one of the top wing scorers (Emanuel Sharp). The supporting cast isn’t half-bad, either: The Cougars signed the No. 2 recruiting class in the country (behind Duke), according to 247Sports. Five-star power forward Chris Cenac Jr. will bolster the frontcourt and offset the departure of mainstay J’Wan Roberts. Houston has what it needs for a third consecutive regular-season title. (Previous: 1)
2. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders ended up losing Darrion Williams, initially to the NBA Draft and ultimately to NC State. And yet, they jumped two spots in the power rankings due to mitigating circumstances. Leading scorer JT Toppin returns, as does gifted guard Christian Anderson. And Texas Tech went into the portal to grab LeJuan Watts from Washington State and Tyeree Bryan from Santa Clara. We underrated Grant McCasland’s group last season and won’t make the same mistake again. (Previous: 4)
3. Brigham Young
The ceiling is higher than the floor is low in Provo. The Cougars could very well emerge as the best team in the Big 12 given the retention of wing Richie Saunders, the arrival of point guard Robert Wright III(from Baylor) and the signing of mega-recruit A.J. Dybantsa. (Big man Keba Keita is back while guard Kennard Davis Jr., a high-level scorer, joins the Cougars from Southern Illinois.) That covers the top end. As for the floor, well, it’s difficult to envision BYU dropping out of the conference’s top tier. How times have changed in Provo. (Previous: 3)
4. Iowa State
Lockdown defense has been the Cyclones’ identity under T.J. Otzelberger, but that only gets you so far. It’s reasonable to wonder whether they have enough offense to navigate the Big 12 gauntlet, especially in the A-level road games that await. (The three teams positioned above them here are demonstrably better on that end of the floor.) There’s plenty to like about the core of Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Milan Momcilovic, but ISU’s success will depend on the supporting cast providing enough punch. (Previous: 2)
5. Kansas
The return of big man Flory Bidunga and arrival of heralded prospect Darryn Peterson strengthened our confidence level that KU won’t drop into the muddled middle of the Big 12. But we never considered the Jayhawks for the very top of the standings. A foolish oversight? Perhaps. But it sure appears that Bill Self’s program has lost its edge on the competition. KU has 17 conference losses in the past two years. In the four previous seasons, it lost a total of 19. (Previous: 6)
6. Arizona
The Wildcats zagged where so many of their peers zigged. Instead of replacing Caleb Love, KJ Lewis, Henri Veesaar and Carter Bryant with a barrage of transfers, coach Tommy Lloyd will lean into his stellar recruiting class that should produce at least two starters: Koa Peat and Brayden Burries. How will the freshmen hold up across five months of grueling competition? (The non-conference schedule is loaded, while the difficulty of the Big 12 lineup speaks for itself.) We’re a tad skeptical until the overhauled rotation offers reason to believe otherwise. (Previous: 5)
7. Kansas State
The outlook in Manhattan changed dramatically when Memphis transfer PJ Haggerty selected the Wildcats from an impressive list of suitors. One of the most coveted players available, the junior guard averaged 21.7 points for the Tigers last season and instantly transforms KSU into an NCAA Tournament contender. At the very least, his presence should create consistency from a team that was ridiculously erratic during conference play. (Previous: 9)
8. Baylor
One of the Big 12’s biggest disappointments in 2024-25 was hit hard by attrition this spring. That might not be a bad thing. Although it’s difficult to take point guard Robert Wright III’s departure (to BYU) as anything but a major blow, the new blood, which includes Michael Rataj from Oregon State and Obi Agbim from Wyoming, could propel the Bears back to relevance. If not, it might be time to wonder if coach Scott Drew has topped out in Waco. Since winning the national title in 2021, the Bears haven’t escaped the second round of the NCAAs. (Previous: 8)
9. TCU
The trajectory in Fort Worth is all wrong, with the Horned Frogs finishing fifth, seventh and ninth (in that order) over the past three years. Yes, the forgettable 2024-25 season gave way to an encouraging spring, as TCU grabbed two impact guards from the portal: Jayden Pierre (Providence) and Brock Harding (Iowa). But we don’t see enough high-end talent for coach Jamie Dixon to materially alter the course of his program. (Previous: 7)
10. Cincinnati
No team in the Big 12 offers a lineup of names that can top the Bearcats’ trio of Baba Miller, Day Day Thomas and Jizzle James, but plenty of teams have more of what really matters: talent. And therein lies the problem for coach Wes Miller, who has yet to reach the NCAAs in his four seasons with UC. If the drought extends to five years, Miller’s future could be in jeopardy. (Previous: 12)
11. West Virginia
The most notable newcomer in Morgantown is the head coach. Ross Hodge takes over after two seasons at North Texas and is the Mountaineers’ fourth coach in the past four seasons. (He follows Bob Huggins, interim Josh Eilert and then Darian DeVries, who bolted for Indiana after one year.) Hodge brought Brenen Lorient and Jasper Floyd with him from North Texas, which should not be taken as a sign of impending doom. The duo can be effective in the Big 12, if they get enough help. (Previous: 13)
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12. Oklahoma State
For a brief period, the Cowboys owned the No. 1 transfer class in the Big 12 with LSU’s Vyctorious Miller as the headliner. They have since slipped to the middle of the pack, but that’s far better than we might have guessed considering the state of play in Stillwater. Coach Steve Lutz did well to win seven conference games in his first season. Tough to envision a major jump from that level, although incremental progress is progress nonetheless given the circumstances just 18 months ago. (Previous: 11)
13. Arizona State
The offseason began with a flourish as four-star transfers Moe Odum and Marcus Adams Jr. joined Bobby Hurley’s program from Pepperdine and Cal State Northridge, respectively. But the Sun Devils proceeded to lose Joson Sanon to St. John’s and Jayden Quaintance to Kentucky, and we’re skeptical the newcomers will generate enough production to elevate ASU and reduce the heat under Hurley’s seat. Anything short of an NCAA Tournament appearance — and perhaps an NCAA Tournament victory — seemingly will mark the end of the Hurley era. (Previous: 10)
14. Utah
New coach Alex Jensen doesn’t inherit much talent from his predecessor, Craig Smith, which means the road to recovery is likely to be long and treacherous in an unforgiving conference. (BYU’s emergence as a contender under Kevin Young undoubtedly ramps up the urgency to win in Salt Lake City.) As a result, Jensen hammered the transfer portal to reshape the roster and landed four-star talents Elijah Moore from Syracuse and Jahki Howard from Auburn. Something is better than nothing but well short of what’s needed. (Previous: 15)
15. Colorado
The Buffaloes were not equipped to thrive in the Big 12 in any way, shape or form. And unless UC Riverside transfer Barrington Hargress plays to the standard set by prior CU point guards McKinley Wright and KJ Simpson, the program’s status within the conference hierarchy won’t change. (Hargress scored 20 points against Oregon and 16 against BYU last season, so there’s reason for hope in Boulder.). Fortunately for coach Tad Boyle, all the attention remains locked on Deion Sanders and the football program. (Previous: 16)
16. UCF
How Johnny Dawkins remains on the job in Orlando, we cannot fathom. The Knights have reached the NCAA Tournament once in his nine years — and that was way back in 2019. They did win 20 games last season and played for the championship of the inaugural College Basketball Crown tournament. But there are no signs of progress where it matters: within the Big 12. Could another subpar season seal Dawkins’ fate? It sure seems that way. (Previous: 14)
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