Newsom v. Trump: A defining moment for America or the California governor’s shot at presidency?

Ever since President Trump sent the National Guard to Los Angeles to quell protests against an immigrant crackdown, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has emerged as a strident and ubiquitous antagonist to Trump’s military deployment on American streets, describing it as unconstitutional “madness.”

Trump’s actions have “defined a serious and profound moment in American history,” he told New York Times podcaster Michael Barbaro on Thursday’s “The Daily.”

For the Democrat whose statewide term ends after the 2026 election, and who is widely considered a presidential contender in 2028, is this also a defining moment for him?

More clashes were expected Saturday when U.S. Army tanks rolling down Washington, D.C., streets during Trump’s military parade contrast with what were expected to be some 1,500 separate “No Kings” demonstrations against his administration in cities across the country.

For Newsom, what started Tuesday with a primetime speech warning that “democracy is under assault” cascaded into a daily onslaught of taunts, insults and threats attacking President Trump and his team, all spun out in interviews, social media posts and viral memes.

When Trump said he got tough in a phone call with Newsom in the early days of the L.A. protests, Newsom called the president a “stone cold liar.” When Trump’s “border czar” Tom Homan suggested Newsom could be arrested if his sanctuary policies impeded ICE officers (and Trump later agreed Newsom’s arrest would be “a great thing”) the governor posted on TikTok for Homan to “come and get me, tough guy.”

Newsom’s barrage of attacks has left many demoralized Democrats hoping this is the anti-Trump leader for whom they’ve been waiting. But others wonder whether Newsom has chosen the wrong battle — that his larger principle of fighting for “democracy over authoritarianism” will be lost in a hail of images of protesters waving Mexican flags amid burning cars, and will only reinforce a running GOP narrative that Democrats are the party of a woke ideology and lawlessness.

“It’s a very fraught issue for the governor to take a stand on because he has to walk a very fine line,” said political science professor Melissa Michelson of Menlo College. “A lot of Americans supported Trump because of his promise for massive deportations.”

For all the talk of the 57-year-old Newsom as the face of the Trump resistance — and a naturally telegenic one at that with his slicked-back hair recently fading to a distinguished gray — former Republican strategist Bill Whalen said Democrats “hyperventilating” about his presidential chances in 2028 “really need to take a chill pill.”

Just two months ago, “the media went crazy,” he said, when U.S. Rep. Cory Booker gave a marathon speech protesting Trump and Elon Musk’s cuts to government agencies. They did the same with U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in April, he said, during the “Fight Oligarchy” tour through California’s Central Valley with Sen. Bernie Sanders and again a few weeks later when Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker delivered a rousing speech about fighting for democracy.

“We have to think about this in moments,” said Whalen, a Hoover Institute distinguished policy fellow, “and Gavin Newsom is having his moment.”

The confrontation began last weekend when Trump ordered 2,000 National Guard troops into Los Angeles following two days of unrest after an ICE immigration crackdown that started in a Home Deport parking lot. Newsom said Trump’s move was unconstitutional and only served to “inflame tensions,” since the National Guard hasn’t been summoned over a governor’s objection in 60 years.

But Whalen, a former speech writer for former California Republican Gov. Pete Wilson, said Newsom’s lofty speech fell into the same trap that doomed former Vice President Kamala Harris, a fellow Californian, in her campaign last fall against Trump. His “authoritarian rant” may have appealed to coastal elites, he said, but not to Trump voters who care about crime, illegal immigration and the economy.

“He is not winning over the unconverted. And therein lies the challenge,” Whalen said. “Take that speech and tell me how that changes him going to Ohio or Pennsylvania or any swing state in America.”

Newsom’s TikTok posts, however, some set to hip-hop music, are gaining traction with a young audience, such as a post about the state suing the Trump administration over the deployment of the National Guard, seen by millions.

Newsom has been capturing the national spotlight since the early 2000s when, as San Francisco mayor, he defied state law and officiated same sex marriages at City Hall. During Trump’s first run for president in 2016, he defended California as a sanctuary state for immigrants living in the U.S. without permission.

But after Trump was inaugurated for his second term earlier this year, Newsom moved into a role as conciliator, inviting nationally known conservatives onto his podcast to seek common ground and grabbing headlines (and shocking progressives) when he agreed that transgender athletes competing in girls sports was “deeply unfair.”

His actions are part of a plan by the governor and his team to position Newsom for his next big move, said Sonoma State Political Science Professor David McCuan.

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“They want to create a new type of Democrat and something that blends Ronald Reagan and Morning in America with Bill Clinton’s retail politics skills and Obama’s charisma,” McCuan said. “They want to roll that all into one Democratic cigar that he can smoke all the way through.”

This latest fight with Trump, despite the harsh rhetoric, McCuan said, is advantageous for both politicians.

“This is a made-for-television moment that both these individuals understand and creates this bromance between them,” McCuan said. “And while Donald Trump may be this East Coast guy leading this MAGA movement, he recognizes that there is an ambitious politician that potentially is a threat. Just like Democrats overreact to Donald Trump — anything he does, the sky is falling — Republicans and the right and their media circles overreact to anything the limousine liberal from San Francisco does. It is like red meat and tofu for each audience.”

No matter how skillfully Newsom may explain to Americans that he supports peaceful protests and opposes violence, or provides sanctuary for law-abiding immigrants but helps ICE deport violent criminal ones, he still carries political baggage — including his inability to solve the state’s twin crises of homelessness and housing affordability, pundits say.

“It remains to be seen whether he can make that work, and he can put his missteps behind him and get folks to take him at his word and think that he is being sincere,” said Michelson of Menlo College. He will need to “overcome the skepticism that folks naturally have of the governor these days that everything he’s doing is an attempt to set himself up as a presidential candidate.”

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