The Big Ten football hierarchy emerged from spring practice with some shuffling on the lower tiers but no changes at the top of the conference.
Until there’s evidence indicating otherwise, it’s a three-team race in 2025.
Penn State, Ohio State and Oregon all possess the talent and depth to win the conference and could finish in any order relative to each other. But something would have to go wrong — very wrong — for any of them to drop to the second tier.
Here is the Hotline’s updated look at the conference race, with each team’s position in our January forecast for comparative purposes.
1. Penn State
At no prior point in the James Franklin era did expectations reach their current level. Fresh off an appearance in the College Football Playoff semifinals, led by an elite quarterback (Drew Allar) and fortified by a new defensive coordinator (Jim Knowles) pilfered from Ohio State, the Nittany Lions will spend 2025 in the land of no excuses. Anything short of a date in the Big Ten championship game — and berth in the CFP — will be a disappointment. Previous: 1
2. Ohio State
A great case could be made for Oregon in this spot given the loss of both coordinators and 14 NFL Draft picks in Columbus, plus the lingering euphoria from the national title run and greater-than-expected level of uncertainty at quarterback. But the Buckeyes have the best offensive player in the country (receiver Jeremiah Smith), the best defensive player in the country (safety Caleb Downs) and a schedule that tilts in their favor: They host Penn State and don’t play Oregon, while the Ducks must visit Happy Valley. Previous: 2
3. Oregon
The defending Big Ten champions have far less margin for error in 2025, largely due to their reliance on an unproven quarterback, Dante Moore, and a retooled offensive line. The turnover is equally significant along the defensive front, where the Ducks lost three NFL Draft picks. Pac-12 titles could be claimed with overwhelming talent at the skill positions; Big Ten trophies are won in the trenches. Oregon might possess the personnel required to repeat, but we need to see it to believe it. At this point a year ago, we were already convinced. Previous: 3
4. Illinois
The Illini exited spring practice with far too much attention to be considered a sleeper pick. But with a veteran quarterback, Luke Altmyer, returning starters everywhere and a favorable schedule (no Penn State, Oregon or Michigan), they are well positioned to emerge as the best of the rest. Don’t be surprised if there’s a two-game gap between the Big Ten’s three frontrunners and everyone else. The race for fourth place is packed with contenders. Previous: 4
5. Nebraska
A massive third year for coach Matt Rhule depends in large part on offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen and sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola lifting an offense that finished 103rd nationally in scoring last season and 104th in yards per play. Noted previously on the Hotline but worth repeating: Holgorsen’s impact — he was named full-time playcaller in December after serving as the interim for the final month of the season — could rival Knowles’ relocation to Penn State as staff moves that materially impact the conference race. Previous: 6
6. Michigan
The issue in Ann Arbor is whether the offense improves enough under freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to offset the expected regression on defense, where the Wolverines were slammed by attrition (particularly on the line). We aren’t convinced the conflicting dynamics will balance out, leaving open the potential for a second consecutive mediocre season under Sherrone Moore. And if that’s the case, Moore’s seat heat will soar. Previous: 7
7. USC
Our outlook for the Trojans has brightened with Lincoln Riley’s talent acquisitions and the build-out of his support staff. But many of the upgrades are designed to benefit the Trojans over the long haul. We remain somewhat skeptical of USC’s prospects for contending in the Big Ten and reaching the CFP next season. Are the lines of scrimmage stout enough? Does quarterback Jayden Maiava have another level to his playmaking? There are too many unknowns to slot USC any higher than seventh. Previous: 12
8. Washington
A critical second season in the Big Ten for the Huskies, who, like USC, must show marked improvement in conference play to ward off the tentacles of prolonged mediocrity. (Once caught in the fair-to-middlin’ cycle, it’s difficult to escape.) Coach Jedd Fisch has handed the keys to Demond Williams Jr., a highly gifted but inexperienced dual-threat quarterback. But UW’s trajectory depends, almost entirely, on the success of Fisch’s work upgrading the lines of scrimmage. There’s a path to contention for the Huskies, but it’s rather narrow. Previous: 8
9. Indiana
Expectations have soared in Bloomington, where former Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza takes charge of the offense. (He possesses a higher ceiling than 2024 starter Kurtis Rourke, and a lower floor.) The Hoosiers’ laughable non-conference schedule will provide early momentum, but we expect that to fizzle once Big Ten play begins. Coach Curt Cignetti worked a miracle upon his arrival, but in some regards, the challenge is more difficult in Year 2. Previous: 5
10. Michigan State
Jonathan Smith has always possessed a keen eye for overlooked talent and used the transfer portal to acquire a barrage of players from lower levels who could propel Michigan State to the next tier within the conference. (A name to watch: edge rusher Cam Williams from Georgia State.) The schedule lines up well for a breakthrough: The Spartans don’t play Ohio State or Oregon, and they host both Michigan and Penn State. Previous: 9
11. Iowa
None of the Big Ten’s starting quarterbacks possess a wider variance between offseason hype and (potential) in-season impact than Iowa’s Mark Gronowski, a transfer from FCS powerhouse South Dakota State. With so many eyes on the likes of Allar, Raiola, Underwood and others, Gronowski has lurked in the shadows but could emerge as one of the best of the bunch. Add stout defense to the mix, and the Hawkeyes might rise above the muddled mass of mediocrity. Previous: 10
12. UCLA
Admittedly, UCLA landing the highest-profile quarterback in the transfer portal was not on the Hotline’s 2025 Big Ten bingo card, but Nico Iamaleava opted to return home to Southern California once Tennessee refused to meet his contract demands. He will help raise the Bruins’ competitive level on a weekly basis. But to make an impact on the conference race, they need more than improved quarterback play. Previous: 15
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13. Minnesota
The loss of quarterback Max Brosmer hurts, but Gophers coach PJ Fleck consistently maximizes his personnel as well as any coach in the conference. The 2025 season should be no different thanks, in part, to a schedule loaded with teams from the former West division and a transfer class currently ranked eighth in the Big Ten, ahead of those signed by Ohio State and Michigan (for whatever that’s worth). Previous: 11
14. Wisconsin
Luke Fickell, a mere 12-13 in his two years with the Badgers, is under heavy pressure to produce a breakout season. He hired playcaller Jeff Grimes away from Kansas, but will Grimes mesh with new quarterback Billy Edwards Jr., who joins the program after a reasonably successful year at Maryland? There are too many unknowns for us to have a more optimistic outlook. Previous: 13
15. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights very well could ascend to the middle tier, for Greg Schiano has done well in his second stint with the program. Rutgers must offset the loss of running back Kyle Monangai but has a veteran quarterback, Athan Kaliakmanis, who has thrown 800 career passes in the Big Ten (for Rutgers and Minnesota) and has seen everything three times over. Previous: 14
16. Northwestern
The forecast in Evanston, condensed to a single sentence: Presumptive starting quarterback Preston Stone lost his job at SMU last season but still constitutes a major upgrade for the Wildcats. They finished near the bottom of the FBS in most major offensive categories and will be hard pressed to ascend with a difficult road schedule and limited personnel. Previous: 16
17. Purdue
Don’t be surprised if Barry Odom, not North Carolina’s Bill Belichick or West Virginia’s Rich Rodriguez, proves the best hire of the 2024-25 offseason cycle. He has 53 transfers arriving, according to the 247Sports database, and could make major strides quickly. The Boilermakers were 0-9 in Big Ten play last year under Ryan Walters. If Odom gets them to 3-6, he will have done stellar work. Previous: 17
18. Maryland
The fourth-quarter comeback against USC was Maryland’s only conference win of 2024, and coach Mike Locksley needs to change his team’s trajectory next fall or the seat in College Park could get warm quite quickly. His options at quarterback are UCLA transfer Justyn Martin or heralded recruit Malik Washington. Either way, the climb is steep. Previous: 18
Previously published content looking ahead to the 2025 season:
Our post-spring Top 25
Big Ten QB rankings
Big 12 QB rankings
Transfer portal winners and losers
Most intriguing games
Top prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft
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